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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (17680)	4/4/1999 10:44:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

For selling this time, I intend to follow Corrigan's recommendations: Basically he believes that boom and busts follows technology cycles. One generation makes money, people piles in for the next one and so everybody lose money on the next generation. Exception is last time we got 2 losing generations because the Koreans understood this so well that they invested heavy in 96/97 with the intention of gaining market share when the next boom comes. Lo and behold, they overbuilt so much they caused two busts technology cycles back to back. And so here we are, I believe the 0.25um cycle will make money. The 0.25um machines can basically be tuned to do 0.25/0.21/0.18um. The 0.15/0.12um is another matter and probably will start the 12" wafer generation. The 0.18um should last into beginning of 2002, with the 0.12um ramping mid-2001. Hence I expect the stock to peak, and I to sell out, sometimes around or later than X'mas 2001. There's always talk of how expansive the fabs are, 12" 0.12um may cost $2.5B to build, and as such, not enough will be built. I expect that when people start seeing how much money the 0.18/0.25um fabs can bring in, they will lose their heads once again and overbuilt for the 0.12 generation. By the way, for myself, my sell indication may be when the newcomers get their money together to build the 12"ers. No dis-respect for anyone intended, but just timing. 0.18um to show how big bucks can be made and that anybody and everybody new should jump in, 6 months to get money together, 9 months to build fab, 6 months to ramp and drive to over capacity etc. etc. patrick

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (17680)	4/5/1999 8:39:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Fair enough Dippy, but quite frankly, I think that you are talking out of both sides of your mouth when you espouse the doctrine of long term investing. For example, below is the chart that compares LSI's performance the past seven years versus your darling--Phillip Morris. As you can see, during the past seven years, LSI has gone up over 1100 percent as opposed to Phillip Morris, which has not even gone up 30 percent. That's an awful lot of potential profit that has gone up in smoke for the investor in big MO. And clearly, no one would have any compelling moral reason to hold a stock in this cholesterol raising, beer gut busting, lung clogging monster. And I will tell you this outright. In two years from now, the return on LSI from today's price will be vastly superior to MO's techstocks.com Look like a huge day for the techs in general. Wonder how this translates to the semis.