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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Enigma who wrote (1455)	4/5/1999 7:44:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Mornin' DD Who is this guy? His rhetoric is fairly sloppy. In reference to the 'belief' we are in a bull market he says Indeed, that belief is widely thought to be the reason that the US savings rate has been negative in two of the past three months (and flat in the other). Wrong. As we've discussed previously the undercount on the savings rate is the result of the way capital gains and capital gains taxes are each treated in calculating the savings rate. This is a technical oddity but it requires physical sales of stocks for a gain. So it requires an actual bull makret, not the belief in one. Many investors think their sharemarket investments will grow by 30 per cent a year so there is little point tucking away further savings. Really? If that were true then where is all the money coming from that is pouring into the equity markets and mutual funds and causing stock prices to rise. Someone out there is saving. He starts of with a comment about how mutual fund investors are going to get a shock in the their quarterly statements. He then points out that many stocks are significantly below their 52 week highs. True. But then he is a quarter or two late with his warning of shocked mutual fund investors. The big declines off their highs were in late summer/ early fall. Investors have already seen those quarterly statements. The first quarter advance has not been very broad based but there haven't been declines of major magnitude. Investors already got their shocks. Fwiw I'm not proposing that all is cheery with the US equity markets. I dislike the focus on every internet stock that hits the street regardless of whether there is any hope of profit. I'm more concerned with signs that we may see some problems with corporate earnings growth. I'm also concerned with the narrowness of this market. Henry