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To: On the QT who wrote (33723)	4/5/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 108807

QT, thanks for both of your responses. Yours is the only correct answer I have received. I had PMed several people with the solution, but they had a hard time following my logic (which was based on enumeration). Perhaps your explanation is clearer. I confirmed the answer with a statistician friend this morning. He explained it as follows: He said that the initial choice had a 1/3 chance of being correct, which means that the remaining bag of choices (the other two windows) would be correct 2/3 of the time. Monty winnows that bag down to 1 curtain which does not change the probabilities of either your original choice (still 1/3), or the bag of remaining choices (still 2/3 although it now consists of only one curtain). Therefore, if you switch the probability of winning is increased to 2/3. Answer: switch. TTFN, CTC