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To: Stefan who wrote (44815)	4/5/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

I believe that we are seeing a virtual repeat of the DRAM glut of the early 80's. My guess is that after we see another gut wrenching price dip, we will see some more old fabs closing or switching over to other products (or to foundries) rather than spending big bucks trying to break even in DRAM. Once we get to that point prices will stabilize, and prices will remain stable for awhile. Thus I currently see us at 1985 on the DRAM calendar. After another fall in 1986, DRAM prices were flat to rising until 1989, and from there fell only slightly until 1995. Could it happen again? All I can say is that in commodities the normal cycle is from prosperity to poverty and back. Carl