Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (17685)	4/5/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: patrick tang	Respond to of 25814

Right before the last New Year as I sat and watched with amusement as the stock took the tax-selling plunge and wondering who is going to help themselves to be freebie, especially after Jock was kind enough to posted on 12/23 that he talked to IR on 12/15 and that LSI was going to do splendidly for the Q, I made out a little Excel spreadsheet on LSI's stock price projections based on: 1. Corrigan's operations model coming true, 17% margins for first $400M, 45% for anything after that 2. Certain % sequential Q sales growth 3. Computing margins and assuming certain tax rate (also projected last Oct/Nov), total diluted shares 4. Equals earnings/share, added next 4 forward Qs total earnings x y PE multiples to give Q stock price +/-15% for swings , rising to certain 'exuberant' levels before it crashes at 5. the beginning of the 12" 0.12um glut that comes after x months for 0.18um to make money, put new money together, build new 12" fabs, ramp fabs etc. etc. 6. Found that $60/$70 totally in the bag, $80/$90 maybe BUT, really hard to stretch to $100 before the show folds for the next bust I have done one update for the Dec Q results, especially in sales, but have not updated for the 6/7% dilution. So far for Q1, the stock price did fall right within the projected range. I am quietly awaiting Q2 to see how it plays out as to the prediction to my spreadsheets. Would post here or attach file if possible, but can't do that. If anybody is interested, feel free to email me direct at home at patrick@ptang.com to get a copy. patrick