To: wellab1 who wrote (2491 ) 4/5/1999 5:04:00 PM From: michael r potter Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Going into today, the short term direction of SFE was not discernable with my limited knowledge of technical indicators. Many times, that is not vital, as usually the market will tell one what to do. Today was one of those days. SFE had been slowly rolling over with a breakout point on the upside of around $69 1/2. This does not show up on daily charts, but looking at charts with 15 or 30 minute increments, it was fairly clear. Breaking that, the market tipped its hand, and SFE became a buy. Even though volume was fairly weak, it did pick up from the last week or so. Two trading days ago, SFE closed at its high for the day on slightly higher volume, and today it did the same. Now, the picture looks very bullish IMO, and SFE should take out the old high soon and from there, move fairly quickly with little resistance. Recall the message from yesterday, showing the similarities of CMGIs move from $17 and SFEs move so far from $17. If the similarities hold, [a big if], then SFE would go to $150 in 4-6 weeks, as the totality of CMGIs move from $17 to $150 happened in about half the time that SFEs moves have taken so far. CMGI did the $70 to $150 leg in around 3 weeks, and if SFE continues the shadow pattern, it would take around 6 weeks. This is a highly speculative model, but above $72-$74, there are no other models to go by and the pattern fits so far. The reason to have a model, is it may allow one to hold in without getting shaken out early if the fireworks really begin. No sign of overall distribution in the I-nuts, and on the contrary, accumulation continues unabated. That will not change quickly, giving SFE a tailwind as it breaks out from here. Fasten seatbelts, it could get wild. Mike
