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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob who wrote (4630)	4/5/1999 5:26:00 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Respond to of 10309

Bob - (..What caught my attention though was that the editor of the newsletter, Michael Murphy, said the growth of the overall embedded software industry is averaging about 23% per year. I have read it is growing at a 40-50% rate. Which is correct?..> If you go to the WIND website, you can listen to the last conference call. I believe that a low 20's % growth rate was quoted for the industry, but that it did not include market share growth and conversion of in-house customer development, but my memory is suspect. My question is why do the analysts expect a 30%+ sequential earnings decline in the current quarter? The web site does show a historical seasonal decline from FYQ4 to FYQ1, but that seems excessive. Regards, Don

To: bob who wrote (4630)	4/5/1999 6:54:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Bob, Thanks for the article. I believe that certain market segments are growing much faster (as mentioned in the article). I have read that earnings for the industry are in the 30-40% range and that WIND is expected to keep pace. Wind revenue has grown 44 and 40% the last 2 years, earnings are projected to grow at just under 30% (assuming they break the trend of beating estimates by a penny a quarter...otherwise the growth is 33%). Taking .33X.81 WIND would be close to $27. Based on 1/2001 earnings estimates the target hits the analysts numbers of mid 30's. there has been no indication that revenue or earnings have slowed to less than 20% which is where WIND is valued now. Perhaps something is going on behind the scenes. Otherwise, I feel that this is a good price. Obviously 12 will be even better. At this pace, we could be there tomorrow. Good luck, Brian