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To: tech101 who wrote (153)	4/5/1999 8:14:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Respond to of 1056

Please stop reposting messages from the Yahoo! msg boards here. Some of us come here to get away from that.

To: tech101 who wrote (153)	4/12/1999 2:36:00 AM
From: tech101	Respond to of 1056

Dow Jones Toward 30,000 in 2010 From Barrons, April 12, 99 A decade ago, he forecast 10,000 in '99; he's still bullish By Peter C. Du Bois An Interview With Frank Jennings ~ A long-term investor in an increasingly short-term world, Jennings took over the $480 million Oppenheimer Global Growth & Income fund in October 1995, and has steered it to the best five-year record in its Lipper Analytical category, which is global flexible. In December 1989, he correctly predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would hit 10,000 in 1999. Now, for a variety of reasons, he sees the DJIA reaching 30,000 in 2010. He worries that the U.S. stock market is narrowly focused, but so long as the biggest caps don't all collapse at once, he sees the "powers of light" prevailing over the "powers of darkness." What do Fidel Castro, Mr. Magoo, Charles Ponzi and Charles Munger have to do with all this, and which stocks does Jennings especially like now? Read on. Barron's: You certainly saw the big picture late in 1989. You correctly said, and we printed your prediction, that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then 2700-plus, would hit 10,000 within 10 years, with some violent fluctuations along the way. You also saw individual investors returning to the fray and big-capitalization growth stocks outperforming asset plays. You identified some industry sectors, including computers, semiconductors and global telecommunications, that would be good bets over the decade. What does your crystal ball tell you now? Jennings: It's important to see things in terms of overwhelming forces. I think that the powers of light still have the upper hand over the powers of darkness. I don't see any fundamental reason -- interest rates, inflation, inventories, corporate profits -- to believe that a bear market is imminent. Q: For how long? A: The indefinite future. Q: Do you have a target for the Dow Industrials? A: I have a mathematical target of 30,000 in 2010. That would be an exponential gain of 11% a year. Of course there will be violent corrections along the way, but I don't see one any time soon. We have had a meaningful move upward here to 10,000. That move probably requires a major consolidation. In this context, you can have a lot of backing and filling and turning around, including some panicky activity.

To: tech101 who wrote (153)	4/12/1999 2:45:00 AM
From: tech101	Respond to of 1056

Small and Mid Cap Stocks May Have a Chance Why people are just buying the large cap stocks and ignoring the small and mid cap stocks? Because they feel the market is vulnerable and they are afraid that when the large stock collapse, they will drag the small/mid cap stocks down badly. But the situation this time may be different according to the Barron's Article: An Interview With Frank Jennings ... Q: Go ahead. A: Ned Davis Research has analyzed the P/Es of all companies in the Russell 3000 universe that are profitable, including the very biggest market caps. Most stocks have very low P/Es. Only 2% have very high multiples. Q: That's interesting, but that 2% drives the S&P 500. Market leadership currently is very narrowly focused. Does that worry you? A: It's a concern because it implies the existence of what I call Charles Ponzi's law. Q: The Ponzi-scheme guy? A: Yes. His banking success, which involved paying a higher rate of interest than the market would bear, wasn't permanent but it worked for a while. Ponzi said that when a man's mind is concentrated, he might as well be blind. That's his quote. What he meant was, if your mind is fixated on, say, the fact that you can make 100% on a Russian treasury bill, you may as well be blind to your own actions. Financially blind investors see current conditions as being permanent. If conditions change, they can get hurt. Today, some high-multiple stocks sell at higher valuations than the market will bear. We just don't know now which ones they are. In certain cases, these are Ponzi-type stocks. Q: They're also greater-fool stocks. Owners of them expect some greater fool to buy them at an even higher price. In the past, this scenario has ended badly. A: You must distinguish between market conditions and individual stocks. What happened in 1973-74 was a confluence of several factors. The big drop was a combination of the end of the Vietnam War, the Arab oil embargo and commodity price inflation, all of which led to interest rates going up and a bad recession. This brought the whole stock market down, including the Nifty Fifty. That was then. Now, the Balkans aside, we don't have a war going badly, an oil shock or a higher interest-rate scenario. Therefore, there's no reason for this market to collapse just because the leaders lose gas. In this climate, some of the current market leaders will continue to do well, others will fall by the wayside. For example, Coca-Cola ran out of gas two years ago. The fizz went out of their profits. The same thing may happen to other big companies. ...

To: tech101 who wrote (153)	4/12/1999 2:48:00 AM
From: tech101	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1056

Frank Jennings Likes National Semiconductor From Barron's Interview with Frank Jennings … Q: You said you like small-caps because they're cheap. Please explain. A: I'm a M-U-L-D investor. I look for Massive Upside potential and Limited Downside risk. I like situations where if the coin lands heads up, you make a lot of money in the stock, and if it comes up tails, you won't lose too much. These stocks obviously are hard to find. By their very nature of having limited downside, they tend to be unpopular. Q: Next? A: Instead of going up recently, National Semiconductor has gone down. It recently hit a 1999 low of 9 1/8, against book value of $10, but is selling at only 0.8 times sales. Its balance sheet is okay. NSM is one of the most operationally leveraged companies in its business, and its earnings quickly would reflect a cyclical upturn in the semiconductor cycle. The chip industry has been in a three-year recession that may be at a bottom. NSM's biggest business segment is in the analog mixed-signal area, which is a bridge between analog and digital. Briefly, NSM makes chips for two types of Web appliances. One provides computerless access to the Internet for cable-TV subscribers. The other is a stripped-down computer whose only function is to reach the World Wide Web. NSM is a return-from-the-grave story. It has lost money over the past four quarters, and will again in the three months to May 31. This is like buying Chrysler in 1981 before it turned around. NSM has been restructuring itself over the past five years, and has invested heavily during a declining semiconductor cycle, especially in the Web-appliance business, where its chips compete with ones made by Intel and Advanced Micro Devices. Q: What kind of event could turn NSM's stock around? A: I think the cycle is turning now. The stock won't turn until some good news comes out. Q: Like what? A: The announcement of a big contract for chips for Web appliances. I don't know when that might be. But when the stock does move, it could run like Qualcomm did. ...