To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4293 ) 4/5/1999 9:31:00 PM From: MrGreenJeans Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15132
New York Times Business Section and Other Notes 1. Getchen Morgenson and her predecessor Floyd Norris of the New York Times have predicted the demise of the market for many, many years. As a matter of fact, one cannot pick up the Sunday business section without reading about gloom and doom and how the market is going to drop any day now. A poor showing for "the paper of record." They have a done a disserive to their readership over the years. 2. Tonight the S and P 500 stands at a pe of 26.96xs 1999 and 25xs plus projected next year's earnings. For me the multiple has become too rich. Nothing good happens at these valuation levels and the persuasive case for the bull becomes more difficult to make. When I hear that if interest rates drop equity prices will move higher I don't disagree but when the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates as to decrease them I take notice. Gross Domestic Product is strong, labor markets seem strong, foreign economies may be recovering faster than thought, the money supply has grown rapidly, the market has gone up like a shot since October without a significant pullback, throw in concerns over the wealth effects from rising equity prices, overvaluation of internet stocks most of which will not be around in five years, daytraders trading stocks like commodities, a disregard for market fundamentals, coworkers who don't know stocks from bonds giving out advice like Peter Lynch, investment banks taking risks they fully don't comprehend, a possible stock market bubble?...and I am one concerned farmer! Let me hear the responses about having people like me help the market climb as I climb the wall of worry but I would rather have some powder dry when the market "corrects." I have always remembered what Bob Brinker said to one of his last callers the Sunday before the Monday of the October 1987 crash a woman who asked if the bull market was over-he stated "we are not there yet" and I have always remembered what a humbled Bob Brinker said to the first, rather upset, caller on his Saturday radio show the Monday after the 1987 crash: "I only give my opinion." Today I took more profits.