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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bahama who wrote (1096)	4/6/1999 12:39:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Bahama, Stocks moving 3 or 4 points a day were considered big moves. 10 points a day--and for consecutive days--were unheard of! Something had to be seriously out of line with the expectation and valuation for such a thing to happen. I understand your perspective. However, I think there might be some underlying rationale to current Qualcomm situation. Even though the real details haven't been revealed by management, there have already been two analysts' estimates increased 25% for FY2000. Using those estimates, this is a gorilla stock trading at a PE that approximates its expected two-year growth rate. That's unheard of for a gorilla in this bull market, and in my opinion is the basis for what will likely be a continued run-up in the price. To ensure you (and everyone) that I'm not hyping that valuation, I'll put my thoughts in perspective. In December I closed my eyes, said my prayers, and bought ATHM at a price I thought was ridiculously overvalued. The stock has appreciated 110% since then. For the life of me I don't know why people are paying up for the stock, though I'm grateful for their irrational behavior. Contrast that with what I think is rational behavior regarding Qualcomm's valuation. The stock is still priced at only 3 times trailing sales and a PE equal to its expected short-term growth rate. Just my opinion. --Mike Buckley

To: Bahama who wrote (1096)	4/6/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: davidm	Respond to of 54805

<bahama> I waited on AOL to fall to a more desirable level about six to eight months ago only to watch it continue to rise. Then, I finally jumped in at 75 and rode it up to 155 in a month or so. As it fell back to 135 I got nervous and sold my 150 shares (which would be 300 now). Well, I eventually bought back in after realizing my "big" mistake at 175 (how's that for high). Stock splits to 87.500 only to rise right back up to 167 or so now. My point is this...you can sit on the sidelines wondering why things are the way they are and miss an incredible opportunity to expand your net worth or you can say I'm in this for the long-term so no time is a bad time. You've got to do something. Sitting on the fence waiting is not what I prefer to do. Besides, what if that "great time" never comes as the stock keeps moving due to the incredible shift in our economy and technology in general?