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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: manohar kanuri who wrote (29387)	4/6/1999 1:06:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Mano, here's the updated btb-by-year chart. BtB has typically bottomed in September. geocities.com:80/WallStreet/5464/btb9199.gif Orders bottomed in Sept. '96 and '98 and peaked near Sept '97. geocities.com:80/WallStreet/5464/eqporder.html If orders peak in Sep '99, it would probably be at a lower level than that of '97. [all of this guesswork is purely from looking at the charts of the past and expecting the future to somewhat reflect it.] The order numbers I have go only back 3 years. The early btb numbers came from Paul V. Maybe he has the early order numbers too? Gottfried

To: manohar kanuri who wrote (29387)	4/6/1999 2:24:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and Threaders, Today, we equaled a double top spread at $66. Hopefully, Tuesday, we will break the double top with $67 or above. It appears that we are on the same TA Chart pattern as in 1996/97 up cycle. Remember, as Tito has reflected AMAT is approx. 1 month ahead this year when compared with '96/97. April 19, I believe, is Tito's D-day for AMAT's staircase workers to start working. It looks to me that his workers have already started working as AMAT climbs toward my high standard deviation of $101.50 or higher. Are we starting to have a bull market again. It will be interesting to see what the DW Bull Percentages say this Wednesday. Just my $.02. Paul