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To: Electric who wrote (20279)	4/6/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Looks like a downward biased day. I suspected as much considering the strong day that ended on a rather weak note except for the relatively small pop at the end of the day. This fits with Donald Sew's down cycle for the NASDAQ. I find it is important to pay attention to cycles. I use them as an indicator and not a way to actually time the market. Indices are in congestion, specifically a form of trading range. Trading range is contracting as volume contracts. I suspect we may see something this afternoon. I am watching indices and specific stocks to help me follow the market. I am not looking at specific stocks for plays yet. I find QCharts a service available from the quote.com site to be very good so far. $70 per month for streaming real-time (plus exchange fees) including good charting and technical studies with tick by tick data as far back as about 2 years. Also includes a "hot list" of real-time market statistics, apparently some not available elsewhere. Also it appears that Level II is available for the cost of the additional exchange fees. Still need to learn more about this service. I do not like the volume and price action on the DJIA on the daily chart. I also see some key stocks putting in technical divergences on the NASDAQ. Will this 9-month cycle that is supposed to come real soon now pull the market down as many are thinking it will? Still, divergences are not the best timing indicator. They are better when used as "alerts". But they need to be heeded. Still some of the important Internet stocks are still looking good even though I see in the price-volume action some cause for concern. Bob Graham

To: Electric who wrote (20279)	4/6/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

I'm back! 5 days in Berlin. It was GReaaaaaat!! SUN SUN SUN Amazing. Great food. What a city. The market-- weird. You ask about the cycle guys. Favors and the Princeton guys say 8 April is the top. It is a 9 month cycle. Sew says the same. We'll see!

To: Electric who wrote (20279)	4/8/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

For you guy, from TheStreet.com Dell's Analyst Day Focuses on Everything but PCs By Eric Moskowitz Senior Writer 4/8/99 5:38 PM ET If Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) truly wants to become a global player, it's going to need some help, according to analysts attending Dell's 4 1/2-hour-long financial analyst day in New York Thursday. That help is expected to come from none other than IBM (IBM:NYSE), which recently signed a five-year, $16 billion product agreement with Dell and is widely expected to be its global services partner of the 21st century, according to Ashok Kumar, PC analyst at Piper Jaffray. "A long-term licensing agreement to pair IBM's global services with Dell's PC division would be a long-term catalyst for Dell," says Kumar, who rates the stock a buy and has done no underwriting for the Austin, Texas-based company. After years of super-fast growth, Dell fans howled with despair at the company's fourth-quarter results, announced in February, which showed only a 38% growth rate vs. the company's two-year average of 56%. The stock fell 30%. Analysts and money managers went into this New York conference expecting some reassurance. Of course, many analysts counted on Dell to use this event to boost morale: The stock has shot up 20% over the last two weeks in anticipation of the meeting, recovering two-thirds of what it had lost after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings. Dell's stock ended down 1 7/16, or 3.1%, at 45 Thursday. The global plans had analysts wondering which other candidates could become a Dell partner. One surprise candidate being thrown around by analysts as a global services partner Thursday was the Texas-based electronic services and technical consulting firm EDS (EDS:NYSE). Dell already uses EDS for high-end services support. "The real purpose of the meeting was to divert attention away from the company's core corporate desktop business," says Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Schutte, who rates Dell a buy and has done no recent Dell underwriting. Schutte points out the corporate desktop space is saturated right now, and growth and margin levels will need to be maintained by aggressively competing in the server and storage spaces. CFO Tom Meredith said the company had 300 storage customers at the end of the fourth quarter and were looking to double that amount in its first fiscal quarter, which ends April 30. Analysts joked that Meredith was saved for last at the conference so analysts wouldn't bolt out the door. A combination of servers and storage gives Dell a chance to diversify its high-end business, says Randy Befumo, an analyst at Legg Mason Fund Adviser who is also a researcher for two Legg Mason funds, Value Trust and Special Investment Trust that have significant holdings in Dell. In terms of first-quarter earnings, which will be announced in mid-May, Goldman's Schutte noted that according to Meredith, Dell expected to earn $1.4 billion to $2 billion from services, or anywhere from 8% to 11% of the company's $18.2 billion in annual revenues last year. This meant that the company will be more geared to services, says Amir Ahari, senior analyst at International Data, who was at the event. That's a timely approach as computer prices are still heading down. Analysts also heard that Dell will continue to "tiptoe" around the sub-$1,000 issue, preferring not "to embrace the $499 to $699 price points," says Kumar. Dell's ASP, or average selling price, is still above $2,300 per PC, the highest in the industry. Still, if the consumer PC prices remain in the $500 to $700 range, that could send ASPs lower at a more rapid clip. Says Befumo: "The ASP decline appears to be getting pretty significant."