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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24980)	4/6/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

I will today get out of my long 130 135's and 140 calls on AOL, I will also rpelace the Yahoo 170 with 240's and take the money off the table.. I will like to highlight BRCM, another few days up here on these levels and this is going to 90 in a months time if we stay above 2200 on NDX.. Today market action will be repeat of yesterday the pits finally covered as they got window of opportunity at 1326.5, they lost some money however I was on the otehr side and picked up some gains as I was long, it was kind of one of those days I disagreed with majority and I won a wager of 5 $. Now where do we go from here I think we will see once 872 on BKX is taken out a big move to 890 and 900 ressitance, this and RUT are two signals where I will like to concentrate, the 20 days MA of RUT needs to go above 50 days that needs RUt to go above 405 for next few days and if we do that we will se a new high and 435 will be hit, but BKX is important to make gains here, we cannot have one sided move without BKX joining, I think BKX 855 is a solid support if NDX 22000 breaks look at BKX and 400 on SOX if these two levels are holiding the break would be temporary however if we break big the BKXand SOX below 849 and 397 I think we will se some attempt to retest that 1310-15 area.. These guys in the pits are stubborn in their apporach and have remained so.. Today important levels to watch will be NDX 2200 support, a full 17 points from opening, moreover also look for DTX and DOT we are approaching this 700, we can move on to 740 levels but I will like to build a ladder of puts from a break of 720 level, I will like to have a spread ideally, however I will only sell naked out of the money calls on DOT after buying out of the money puts on Yahoo AOL and BRCM replacing my existing in the monies by out of the monies... I think mostbullish thing to watch would be TYX, if we start seeing a fall in yields a rallying bond would really now come in to fore.. I think a full percentage point drop is in offing, if we have confirmatory numbers from the economic relaeses during the course of the week, we need to work on it closely and realise that a further move up will be now based on a BOND RALLY.. i HAVE AVOIDED BONDS so far now this is going to be the time of bonds rallying and market going higher if this thing has to move. Howeverthe marekt is perfectly poised, bonds are at 5.56 not 4.56 and we can see 4.80 so why not a possibility of a bond rally with a market rally, this two will work fine for a up move. I think it has to be a perfectly well thought trading strategy which will work, keep investing some money in really out of the money May puts.. Like 1240's.. I will certainly do it if 855 is taken out on one closing basis. I have 1270's and 1200's but in whole plan of things the insurance for next few days of uncertainity is worth the price especially when I got them by selling 1220's which I covered on rally leaving my cost very low but possilbe return very high. It always pay to purchase out of money cheap puts when markets are making new highs, the put premiums just disappear and I think we may see some money making posibility if 1370 prooves to be a major resistance or this breakout of NDX may fizzle, right now with only one tech pre annoucing the other factor is a major pre-annoucement, so for all this we may need to be careful. The market looks good and ready to move up but it will overall be a very volatile environment, we would need to be very careful.. However without a bullish bias this will become a ver difficult marekt, it will squeeze your shorts make you long and than reverse, that pain threshold of shorts lie above 1390 so may be before we retreat the threshold is crossed within fifteen days so as to break the short resolve......... I willbe looking at thebreak of 1327 very carefully I know that pits were covering hteir shorts htere, also a break of 1322 will spell a tour to 1315 as 1322 was the area wherethey went long, a strong opening will be sold and a weaker opening may be bought, one needs to see that too, if BKX keeps picking steam and SOX rallies to 405 and above we may see another close above 2200, and that is on NDX is a very solid signal..like wise a break below 1312 would be difficult and I would expect some cover below that immmediately, this is without the insurance a trading cover..