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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P P Bravo who wrote (55704)	4/6/1999 5:23:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

P P Bravo: COMPAQ made the decision not to publicly and formally address the sudden fall in its share price from $41 to $30, and not to "correct" or comment upon the slew of analyst's comments that were published the day after Mason's discussion with CSFB in late February. I understand the reasoning behind that decision and especially the legal and other forms of jeapordy further statements might create, given that the quarter was truly back-end loaded and COMPAQ has not been in a position to give definitive assurances, until, perhaps this week. And by now the quiet period inhibits detailed discussion. However, I concede that COMPAQ's decision not to correct or comment has created a void. Given all the bad publicity which followed on the 4Q 1997 build-up of inventory in the channel and the effect this had on 1998 earnings, I suppose that it was inevitable that the void should be filled, in part, with forebodings that COMPAQ's silence is a sign of its weakness not its strength. It is interesting to me that few, if any, of the working analysts attached to brokerage houses, recommend COMPAQ with a free heart. Most, if not all, attach to their BUY recommendations cautions relating to uncertainty about the true state of affairs in the company or the industry. Most of the populist guru-journalists reflect this tone. I think it fair to say that very few of brokerage house analysts (and none of the guru-journalists) have provided confident or comprehensive analysis of the growing complexity of COMPAQ's structure or its revenue streams. I do not blame the analysts entirely. COMPAQ is a very complex and diverse company now. The relative size and earning power of all its constituent parts will not be obvious until the process of assimilating DEC and Tandem (including the spin-off of Alta Vista) has been achieved. In this situation, COMPAQ should pay special attention to being transparent and clear, and should work hard at creating trust and confidence in the market. If we are to believe the brokerage house analysts and the guru-jounalists, and if the share price is taken into account, COMPAQ has failed to do this adequately, for whatever reason. However, the record shows that a larger number of institutions, than ever before, have been buying COMPAQ in recent weeks. *(See note below).** We also know that the great majority of institutional analysts (not brokerage house analysts) especially the senior analysts interviewed on TV and in other media strongly recommend COMPAQ. If you are a bull you will be encouraged that these people put their money where their mouth is; if you are a bear you will note that they have been buying and recommending a falling stock for several weeks and, in some cases, for several months. Those who feel badly aggrieved by the company's apparent failings in its relations with the stock market should consider the suggestion I made a few weeks ago. Send a letter, or at least an e-mail, to Chairman Rosen, because all the venting of angst is futile unless it reaches the ears of those who can do something about it. Note:* 1,833 institutions owning 56.72% as of last week. marketguide.com