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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (41664)	4/6/1999 10:37:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I don't like what I am seeing; Oilpatch not behaving well.... We are fundamentally undervalued with Oil at this price range; even with $15+ Oil. The Street imho; is focusing earlier and stronger on the weaknesss in Cap Ex spending. I had expected them to push the OSX to 72ish here; and then in the 2nd half of 1999 as dayrates, utilization and cap ex spending increase the move to 85ish and even 100 - with $16 +/- Crude prices. But instead; they are hammering the soft backlogs of UFAB, even GIFI and FGI here. Personally; I am still in a ''trading'' mode and am currently now about 35% in Integrated Oils (MRO, KMG) ; 35% in E&P's and 30% drillers & service. - and I am selling drillers and service here on any strength, as I see the Street doing the same and expect a selloff into the upcoming earnings reporting period which starts with DO this week - not a good upcoming 2 weeks imho.... time to have some cash to buy weakness - because there most definitely will be weakness and buying/trading opportunities shortly, with the way we are trending here... Sitting on limit buys on any moderate retracement on RIG & PGO (my 2 fav's - on a level of their own here imho) in substantial amounts; FGI only in the sub - mid $13ish area, SDC @ $16ish and maybe FLC for a trader in the $6's - ''aint'' interested in much more than RIG & PGO in volume. - this market just isn't acting ''right'' imho - the ''gut instincts'' say it is worse than it looks and may be getting worse.... GaryB - the EW"s may be correctamundo here - go figure with Oil prices ??? - well; maybe it isn't ''allways'' the price of Oil - stupid ....<VBG>... ...just looks like the Street is going to wait untill all the earnings are in before they make a big commitment here - but if there are no negative surprises - then we ramp through OSX 72-78 if crude stays here imho. I do love CLB if it opens in the $12's-$14's here and will avg down at each $2 to zero if need be - this is a gift here ! - g u a r a n t e e d - but, do give it a quarter or so to back & fill.....patience.