Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (9942)	4/6/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: theRedDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

This is taken from today's briefing.com. For those who don't read it regularly, their commentaries are usually neutral to slightly bearish. ("realistic/esceptic", I would say) Their very first phrase is, of course, tongue in cheek, some kind of admission of capitulation. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> General Commentary: This time is different... Over the past couple of months the sector/market has had several big one-day rallies... But in almost each case there was no follow through buying... Within days the market would give back its gains and return to its relatively tight trading range... No longer... Briefing.com expects Monday's broad-based advance to be the beginning of a moderately strong upside push with a much-needed increase in participation... The reasons for our optimism: Earnings warning season coming to a close, with actual numbers set to start rolling in next week... Traders preparing for typical "sell the rumor, buy the fact" rebound. PC sector showing signs of life... As we have been predicting on this page over past few weeks, anxiety over sector slowdown was exaggerated - as problems more seasonal than permanent. Many of the second and third tier companies have already experienced "bear" move, falling by as much as 30%-40% from 52-wk highs... As such there are a number of relatively attractive long-term plays for value oriented investors. Momentum and bullish psychology in Net sector is contagious. Plenty of cash on sidelines (bolstered in part by tax returns). We doubt seriously that the current advance will match the historic Oct-Jan run, but gains should be relatively impressive... One factor limiting the upside is extreme values and overextended technical tone of sector leaders... At some point these stocks will have to correct and when they do it will be tough for rest of the players to pick up the slack... That said, the short-term outlook looks much improved following Monday's record-setting jump. <<<<<<<<<<<<

To: Casaubon who wrote (9942)	4/6/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Ord Oracle BOTTOM LINE ON THE MARKET. April 5, 1999 WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. On last Thursday commentary, we said, "Yesterday a signal for a top was triggered both my completing the third gap of a Candlestick pattern called a "Three Gap Play" and a candlestick pattern called a "Bearish Engulfing". We haven't interred into a put position yet because the ARMS Index closed yesterday at 1.37. Normally when the ARMS Index closes over 1.30 a short-term bounce in the market is likely (which it did today). Judging by symmetry on the June S&P's this potential bounce (or consolidation) may last into most of Monday." Indeed this bounce did last into Monday rallying 175 Dow points. We were not expecting this strong of a bounce however. We were only looking for a bounce to the 1305 area on the June S&P's. However, the bearish picture is still present. On the weekly candlestick chart on the June S&P's for the week of March 19 a Bearish "Shooting Star" was drawn. Most "Shooting Star" highs are re-tested. The high on this "Shooting Star" Was 1337, the all time high. Also on March 19 on the daily candlestick chart a "Dark Cloud" Cover was drawn. A lot of the time a "Dark Cloud" Cover high is also tested which is also 1337 on the June S&P's. The intraday ARMS Index stayed consistently near .55 all day today and closed at .57. This type of condition appears near short term highs. The conditions are setting up for a short-term top near the 1337 area on the June S&P's. No bearish candlestick pattern was drawn today, therefore no signal for a short term top.