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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (49087)	4/6/1999 7:32:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Sarmad -- <One more thing that may bring even more money into the US market is the talk that Japan may permit pension money to be invested outside Japan. If that occurs, then $trillion might come to the US instead of flowing out.> With ten trillion in private savings, there is plenty of potential fuel for the internet rocket. How Japanese investors feel about direct participation in our bubble is not clear at the level of the individual household. In their own bubble, households swore they would never sell -- and then 80% of them sold -- like our investors today swear they won't sell -- we will see about that. If we see selling here, people will find out too late that there is a difference between saving money and stock speculation.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (49087)	4/6/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Sarmad -- I forgot one other thing -- corporate pension plans in Japan are underfunded to the tune of about $900 billion -- this is a whisper number as there is not an official total. Unless you fathom the full extent of the financial mess in Japan, as well as their enormous pool of savings as an underpinning for our debt markets, it is easy to underestimate how serious their problems really are, or what the solutions might do to us. I post on this because I think it is hanging over the market and causes worry to large players -- but I see absolutely zero, nada, nothing to indicate movement of capital right now. If the stock market comes down from here, it will be because of interest rates and valuations. As long as the yen is above 120, I think this will be true. If the yen falls below 120, fund managers will suspect something is up. We are in earnings season -- how do you think earnings will play out?