Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Eddy who wrote (5312)	4/6/1999 11:49:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 9818

David, You're right, or course. I only used 1/1/00 because it is easier than mentioning every possible trigger point that could cause an erroroneous reading. I did not mean to imply that disruption or system failures would only occur on that date. But personally, having Y2K event spread out over a period of months basically means that engineers and programmers will have more time to fix that particular system and to calculate which other system will be next to fail. Regards, Ron

To: David Eddy who wrote (5312)	4/6/1999 3:28:00 PM
From: Ken	Respond to of 9818

Whoa! Let's lighten up on this fixation on 1/1/00. There's going to be considerable spread as to when bogus date processing kicks in David: You've made a very good point here, which so many overlook, espically for codes. There will be spike periods from now thru 2001; anyone can find references to the important dates. However, the following must be factored into this conclusion: ....when will most disruptions occur due to the embedded chips/systems malfunctions? ....what will be the effect of the coming market/economic meltdown, expected to occur months before Jan 1? How many companies will go bankrupt that fit crucial niches in vital supply chains? ....how many companies in any/every sector hit by the meltdown that do stay in business, will not be able to afford fixes? ....how many programmers and engineers will be available to fix malfunctions,particularly during the spike periods? ....how many of them will be able to even get to work, if/when civil unrest, gasoline unavailability, food shortages, water delivery and grid shutdowns occur? ....how many of them, espically in key areas such as heavy transport, infrastructure, etc, will work if they are not getting paid, or paid on time? ....how additionally disruptive or disasterous or catestrophic, esp in the same key areas, will terrorism be? ....what will be the practical, everyday effects of the coming (based on my sources reports, I will bet the barn on this one!) martial law and state of national emergency, with serious EOs in place? ....how serious will be the expected civil unrest, city by city? ....how serious will be explosions and fires from x number of non-compliant chemical and manufacturing firms, and particularly near key junctures of the grid, etc.? These are only the beginning of questions that, until answered during the fact, will not allow us to know how disasterous will be the effects overall... In an isolated context, the fact of the 'spread' spike dates that you have correctly suggested, would otherwise give great hope that society could manage the/most of the disruptions.... In reality, in an interrelated/interdependent context, there are just TOO MANY potential adjacent, or even independent, but most importantly, cascading senarios spelling disasters or catastrophies in so many sectors of society possible, some of which are probable.... Most plausible senario, taking into account as many potential permutations as possible? Rather than Jan 1 being a make/break date for the infrastruture and economy and modern society....I hypothesize a gradually and progressively disrupted society, simultaneously/nearly simultaneously....disintegrating on many fronts....slowly devolving the entire infrastructure and society...I call this a 'dwindling spiral' of devolvement...in a gradually widening sphere of systemic failures, whereby the fixes become gradiently less and less practically possible, as the dominoes gradiently continue falling, forward and backward.... Ken