Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Racso who wrote (54443)	4/6/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: DRBES	Respond to of 1583416

The most compelling arguments of all are that "scoping" studies of the upside possibilities of this stock include a "least upper bound" in excess of ten times its current price and a "greatest upper bound" around 40 times its current value. These are not "targets" but bounds on the movement during the next three to five years. The downside is most obviously "ZERO". The main thing wrong with a strategy of making a strong commitment is the inability to find a dozen more like AMD so that risk can be spread. In my opinion (certainly not humble), AMD represents one of the greatest inefficiencies in market evaluation history. See my profile for a distillation of some of my recent posts that have greater detail and some crude analysis. Regards, DARBES

To: Racso who wrote (54443)	4/6/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: RDM	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1583416

AMD may be a very good investment at 16 I own AMD stock. I am not selling any for less than 30. It has been to 30 many times. The stocks knows the way quite well. If you had bought at 16 and sold at 30 during the past few years you would have made a lot of money. The stock may go down some next week when the details for the last quarter come out. That is what everyone on this thread has been saying. This means to mean that probably it should go up when the bad news is announced because it is not as bad as people expect. AMD is a very volatile stock. It goes up and down a lot. It is not for the cautious investor. Caution is not always good. The K6-III is now shipping. The 400 Mhz and above K6-2 are shipping in volume. The prices on everything are coming down. New parts are being introduced at very high prices to give room for coming down. AMD will ship a few K7s within a few months and will try to ship a lot of K7s by the fall. Initially K7s will be 500-600Mhz and probably be reaching 700-800MHZ by December. Support chips and motherboards are not as far developed as the K7 chip and may cause delays. Probably AMD will announce a layoff next week and a $50 million dollar restructing charge as well as a $50 million dollar loss from operations. Estimates are that they will break even next quarter. I am a long term holder of AMD because I believe the K7 will surpass Intel in speed. Once the production levels are up the profits in my opinion will flow. This is such a lively thread because some Intel investors reside on this thread to observe the activity of this most dreaded competitor to Intel.

To: Racso who wrote (54443)	4/6/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Shane Geary	Respond to of 1583416

I think that more talk about engineering issues means less childish squabbling! This is a real 'love it or hate it' stock (or should that be 'love to hate it' and 'hate to love it'?) Is AMD a good investment? 2 questions to answer. What revenues can AMD expect from reasonable execution of the K7 production? Are these revenues factored into the current share price? I think that AMD's share price is will rise. There should be a positive kick from the K7 introduction. Long term - the market will always be tough for AMD. They are competing with an extremely rich company with overwhelming market share and pricing power in a market where resources count more than in most others.