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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1722)	4/6/1999 2:16:00 PM
From: Quincy	Respond to of 34857

"Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and Sony are not going to buy one single chipset from Qualcomm for their future Chinese CDMA models." Fine. Those using Q's MSM3100 will be offering better battery life, reduced size, voice recognition, USB jacks, inexpensive automotive hands-free adaptors, and 64Kb/sec IS95B data. Those who don't, according to your argument that we desire only the latest and the coolest, will gather dust on the store shelves. Those who want to suffer that fate, the line forms on my left. Good luck.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1722)	4/6/1999 2:48:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 34857

This business plan of investing simultaneously 3 billion dollars in a GSM expansion and 2,8 billion dollars in a CDMA expansion is - to use clinical phraseology - bonkers. As an analyst I suppose you're allowed to throw around these clinical terms, and yes it does sound bonkers. If I were a bonkers banker I'd spend my money on GSM but if not, guess which system I'd want?..Dave

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1722)	4/7/1999 12:22:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

CDMA in China and bonkers PLA Tero, you are overlaying your western free market concepts without backward compatibility onto the world of China. We should not allow our ideological positions to separate us from our lives or our money. Ramsey would perhaps compromise his life but would remain steadfast on his money, but he is only partly imbued with western ideology. In totalitarian regimes, one needs to think a bit differently. If one is the beneficiary of the alpha male's favours, then it can be very good indeed to be part of such a system [for a while anyway]. For example, South Korea used government power to demand cdmaOne become the official wireless system. So it came to pass. This was GOOD for Qualcomm, CDMA and me. It fortunately turned out good for the South Koreans too, overall. The investment strategy, 'bonkers' might be very good in China. It is actually the investment strategy used in the USA too, except that in the USA, instead of just the two clinical trial arms, GSM and cdmaOne, they use a fractalized interactive system with TDMA, GSM, cdmaOne and analogue all contending simultaneously with no intelligent analysis of who sells what where. This is called 'free market'. But it is still a 'bonkers' investment strategy because all the capital is still invested. In the inscrutable Chinese version of the 'bonkers' strategy, they are using just the two types of wireless, GSM and cdmaOne. It takes no more capital if both bonkers investments are owned by a single party than if the two technologies were handled by different parties. In fact there would probably be less capital invested because they'd be more circumspect about where they built competing networks. So both the Chinese and USA bonkers strategies are going to gobble a lot of capital, though the Chinese will use less capital because of no TDMA and no analogue. They will also use less because where GSM is heavily built out, they'll probably delay installing cdmaOne. So the Chinese 'bonkers' strategy should be very cost-effective. As time goes on, they'll lean one way or the other as they need to add capacity. When cdma2000, W-CDMA, Iridium and Globalstar are available, they'll add those as competing elements too. If cdmaOne is succeeding and is cheaper, they'll lean that way. If GSM is better, they'll go that way. My bets will all be on cdmaOne, cdma2000, W-CDMA, WWeb and Globalstar. I bet those mad hatters with their bonkers strategy increasingly choose cdmaOne over GSM as demand builds and capacity comes under pressure. Did you see those hot-stuff Metawave Two-Stick-Bathtub antennae gave a full 50% capacity improvement in cdmaOne trials. They expected 40% but presumably MIT's SurferM gave them detailed instruction on how to propagate the waves just-so and keep the sticks in time. With the MSM3100, I guess that cdmaOne will look even more attractive to those mad hatters in China who run bonkers networks. Nokia will refuse to buy the great Q! chips - they'll use click beetles/286 hybrids but at least they won't be buying from Q! You can see those Nokians won't be using any bonkers strategy if they go with your plan. Maurice PS: Notice that Ericy went bonkers too and despite people moaning at how obtuse I've been all these years for insisting that Ericy would indeed buy a cdmaOne licence, which they have now done, they are planning on selling both cdmaOne and GSM. I suspect that they plan to offer both products to the mad hatters of China for the bonkers strategy. The whole world is going 'bonkers'. My prescience must amaze you, Mika, Raymond and those who were convinced I was off my trolley. If you have any questions about the future, just ask! [Tero, just on the quiet, you should be aware that in Pommyland, they use the expression 'bonkers' in a euphemistic way to describe people interested and acting out human reproductive processes. This could give offence in China, so be circumspect about the use of the word].

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1722)	4/7/1999 4:07:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Who'll buy the MSM3100? Tero, you said: "...Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and Sony are not going to buy one single chipset from Qualcomm for their future Chinese CDMA models. That's what you get when you try to compete with your customers - the mistake Intel never made." Motorola, Samsung and the 30 subscriber handset licensees will buy the best chip available at the right price for their purpose, whether or not that chip supplier also produces handsets. But some will prefer to make their own ASICs, so that they have full design control and the ability to add features, performance and product differentiation. That will be an expensive strategy requiring a highly competitive ASIC team so it will be used with discretion by the large companies such as Nokia and Motorola. Ericy might become best buddy of Q! and stick with Q! chips. Q! is producing 90% of the ASICs. Any more than that would suggest they are undercharging, leaving too much on the table so that others don't bother with competing. Any less would suggest they are overcharging, providing too much incentive for people to escape the expensive ASICs and develop effective, cheaper solutions. Since they had 100% not too long ago, it is appropriate that Q! market share in ASICs drops. Maybe it will go down to 50%. If competitors are really good, maybe it will go to zero. That's the fun of it all. The Q! ASIC designers and producers will be keen to keep their market share and profits high, because they won't want their suddenly very happy looking stock options to turn to muck. Anyway, why do you think the Chinese handsets will be something special as far as the ASIC is concerned? Maurice [Looks as though the Q! people have abandoned ship and arrived here and the Gilder thread!]