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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (9988)	4/6/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: epicure	Respond to of 99985

Shall we take this with a grain of contrarian salt?

To: donald sew who wrote (9988)	4/6/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

donald, In fact one of them called me an ass____le for being even partially short Some people are so touchy about their stock positions, aren't they? Great stories....keep 'em coming. When they go completely bonkers nuts long side, let us know .... that will be the SELL signal. -Scott

To: donald sew who wrote (9988)	4/6/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

IMO don't expect this market to pull back much. Good underlying strength that has been building for some time now. Today I see evidence of many shares changing hands with no breakdown of key stocks which prepares for the next run up. I expect breadth to continue to widen. But your infamous 3rd day on the down cycle should prove to be revealing of market health. If I am not mistaken, the last one which did not demonstrate the expected market weakness I think was very revealing. Failures can be the best and most reliable form of indicator. Still, I am not happy with what I see in the DJIA. And then there is that 9-month cycle that you speeak of. We shall see. Here is a list of reasons from briefing.com for a continued move up by the market: 1. Earnings warning season coming to a close, with actual numbers set to start rolling in next week... Traders preparing for typical "sell the rumor, buy the fact" rebound. 2. PC sector showing signs of life... As we have been predicting on this page over past few weeks, anxiety over sector slowdown was exaggerated - as problems more seasonal than permanent. 3. Many of the second and third tier companies have already experienced "bear" move, falling by as much as 30%-40% from 52-wk highs... As such there are a number of relatively attractive long-term plays for value oriented investors. 4. Momentum and bullish psychology in Net sector is contagious. Plenty of cash on sidelines (bolstered in part by tax returns). Add to this with help from the thestreet.com: 1. Blow off by the market of Coke and Gillette second time in a row earnings warnings. 2. Very good recent economic releases like the unemployment number. No chance of Fed tightening. No runaway economy (what a perverse notion by the public). 3. Tech did not selloff yet another time during the preannouncement period which has ended. 4. Japan rallied. 5. Shorts got squeezed. Furthermore, today is demonstrating the bullish buying on the dips mentality. And the techs are holding their gains so far instead of being sold off which was the recent pattern. I find with sentiment driven markets short term indicators of market sentiment prove to be very worthwhile to follow and can be very revealing of where the market will go next, at times even better than short term technical indications. Together with the price action of select indices and stocks can reveal much about the markets current health and underlying strength. This assumes the bigger technical picture is intact. The short term continues to look good. Just my opinion of course. Bob Graham

To: donald sew who wrote (9988)	4/6/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don: I looked at today as a chance to build momentum for a decline. I still think there is a good possibility of that in the next 80 minutes. I was waiting for the volume A/D to fall apart. We had the mid-afternoon move up which should be wrong. So, we should pick up more negative volume in the last hour. My belief is based on the attempted move out of the triangle on the INDU on poor volume. I was looking for a move down to about 9680 to make a move back up to 10400 viable. However, the INDU moved out of the pattern too early and without conviction. Until the moneyflow pattern on the INDU changes, it will be hard to see the popular indices decline. Well, let's see if we have the last hour volume selloff.