Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wellab1 who wrote (2499)	4/7/1999 1:30:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Elsewhere, it has been stated that if ICG trades with a market cap. of $50 Billion, it would be worth $22 per share to SFE. This statement has not been corrected, so here is the correct value. If ICG had a mkt. cap of $50 B., it would be worth $13 B to SFE [assuming they would still own 26%] which works out to $393 per SFE share. Now as to the probablity of ICG coming out with anything like a $50 BILLION market cap. About .00000000001%. CMGI has a market cap. of $10.7 B. and if ICG starts trading with the same market cap. as CMGI [and I'm not suggesting it will or will not-am judging and trading SFE by sentiment, money flow, and technicals now ], that would be worth $2.8 B to SFE or $85 per sh. IF that were the case, SFE would be around $110-$120 based on its components including some value for other private companies. Of course no telling where this tulip-mania will progress by summer. CMGI could be cut in half or double-neither would be surprising. CMGI added another 1/2 B. mkt value today. AMZN now "worth" $29 BILLION and they are expected to lose $.91 per sh. this year and "only" $.29 p.sh. next., while their larger rival Borders with $80 M. in profits last year is $14 down from $41. Why---they committed the capitol offense--they we're LATE to the internet. SO, AMZN is worth 29 times as much or so the market says..we'll see. Mike

To: wellab1 who wrote (2499)	4/7/1999 2:58:00 PM
From: wellab1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Apr.21 conference call possible outcome on price (A) EARNINGS WILL BE GOOD (1) Single punch- they will talk just last quarter earnings - moderately will influence the stock price to the upside (2) Double punch- they will additionally announce those expected,big news about their new plans ,ICG especially--dramatic upside (3)Triple punch--good past earnings +good future earnings guidance + great news = very dramatic upside.This would be the best prescription for doubling in price (B) EARNINGS WON"T BE GOOD (1)Single hit- they will talk just earnings without sweetening them with good plans and good future guidance= moderate downside (2)Double hit - bad earnings +Bad future Guidance (3) tripple hit -= (2) + bad news (like cancelling their Internet plans) Above pts 1-3 are of course higly unlikely.No one is suicidal.They will not add bad news to bad earnings. The only unknown are earnings.One can assume with high degree of probability they will use the opportunity of conference call to announce great moves and good earnings guidance.So,the most possible outcome is: (A) Good past earnings = point (3) (B)Bad earnings (4)sweetened with good guidance,justified with one time charges and investments for the future plus great news announcements Big loses will not be outweighted by point (4),moderate loses -can. Of course reaction of investors will depend upon their focus.And the focus is just in the process of shifting from strict fundamentals characteristic for the "old economy "companies to more Internet -like approach.As Michael P noticed those who can not stand the rise in P/E from 19 to 25 are taking the nice profits and those who are willing to trade P/E of 30-40 in exchange for big growth potential are moving in ,treating SFE as a cheap opportunity. Possible stock behavior in next 3 weeks: (1) Earnings run -if analysis ,guesses, preannouncements and rumors will point to good earnings (we can use more enlightment in this area) the earnings runs usually start 3-1 week before and may add 10-20% to the price.Usually the day of announcement is a downturn (buying on rumors selling on news) and if announcement is positive stock is coming back on its course within a week or two. (2)Pre-earnings downturn .Those who don't want to take chances and who are thinking great announcements will not outweight assumed by them bad earnings are taking money out of the table with eventual intention of getting back later (3Wait and see- probably the most common approach. All this can result in some seasawing Go figure Wellab