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To: Educator who wrote (7412)	4/6/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: Emerald City	Respond to of 29970

Thanks very much for the warm welcome. I like your plot treatment! I see many kindly faces around me already. Who's working on the soundtrack -- you know, the one where Dorothy & company (us intrepid investors) gather outside of the Wicked Witch's castle to plan our next moves. You can hear the Witch's henchmen -- her hired soldiers (Barton Biggs, Bill Fleckenstein, and other nay-sayers) -- yo-ho-ho-ing their way into their own trap. Singing so loudly they don't even notice that institutional fund managers are putting on the Internet costume and "inconspicuously" joining the crowd of profit-seekers! Only problem is, that hourglass is mighty cloudy, and really tricky to time. Things like shareholders' meetings and subscriber numbers do help to clarify the future. I'm looking forward to learning new information and sharing insights, such as they are. But I can't resist saying: Please don't B/FLAME me for my ignorance ... I might melt!

To: Educator who wrote (7412)	4/6/1999 9:14:00 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Food for thought Educator To: lml (3321 ) From: Hiram Walker Tuesday, Apr 6 1999 9:05PM ET Reply # of 3322 lml et all, interesting article on the coming fiber optic bandwidth glut. This situation sort of reminds me of the cellular glut,and competition. There is already way too much fiber,but its all dark fiber. To light it up for 2 way will cost billions,if not trillions. But the cost of lasers and DWDM is coming down fast,but is it fast enough? forbes.com Fiber frenzy By Toni Mack BUILDING A FIBER-OPTIC NETWORK in the right place at the right time made Gary Winnick of Global Crossing a rich man. For Ralph Swett, it has been far less rewarding. Swett, 64, is founder of IXC Communications, which owns one of the nation's largest fiber networks. Austin, Tex.-based IXC and other bandwidth builders—Level 3, Qwest Communications and Williams Cos., among them—are in the midst of a fiber-building frenzy. A slaughter waiting to happen? In the next two years data traffic could grow an impressive 18-fold—but U.S. network capacity could rise more than 400-fold, says Renaissance Worldwide, a Newton, Mass.-based consultancy. It argues that the long-haul fiber-optic system in the U.S. could grow from enough capacity for 126 billion simultaneous phone calls (each call tying up 64,000 bits of space on a strand of fiber) to 54 trillion in 2001. If and when a glut arrives, the newcomers might slash prices to frightfully low levels. AT&T, Sprint and the like would have to react. Customers would benefit, but the bandwidth business would get ugly. Already prices are falling: Since last June the wholesale spot price of bandwidth is down 35%, thanks to ample supply. The bandwidth barons say Web commerce and interactive services will soak up the supply. Better still, all that new megacapacity would cost megabillions. Fiber laid isn't the same as fiber lit. To fully equip a 10,000-mile strand costs $3.5 billion, says Nayel Shafei, who just left Qwest to found Enkido and work on video programming and other new bandwidth-gobbling uses for fiber. “Everyone talks about how much fiber they have, but fiber isn't bandwidth. The fiber is still dark, and it will stay dark as long as lighting it is so expensive,” he says. These days, however, Swett must quell new worries that another bandwidth glut looms. By some estimates, 35% of the fiber already in the ground is “dark,” unused but ready. But the sheer cost of revving up new fiber for use could help avert an oversupply. When IXC's network is finished later this year, Swett and Scott will have spent $1 billion to bury 24 to 48 fibers along its 15,000-mile route and to light 2 to 4 of them. Lighting the rest of the fiber would expand IXC's network capacity at least 100-fold—but cost $10 billion. All the fiber firms face the same hurdle. None has yet filled even 5% of its current capacity. Qwest says it would have to spend as much as $13 billion to fully light all of its unused fiber. “For Qwest, Level 3 and all of us to light our networks to the max would be silly. The demand isn't there,” declares James Guthrie, IXC's chief financial officer. He believes the process will occur slowly as demand emerges, thereby avoiding a calamitous price plunge. “We won't light all our fiber unless we have specific contracts to use that capacity,” Guthrie says. ------ Previous

To: Educator who wrote (7412)	4/6/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: Techlad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

ED, NBR tonight said that the PR firm that represents AOL and "some others" is calling a press conference for tomorrow.The only thing I heard is a possible deal between AOL and CBS,but AOL denies that they have any announcement.PR firm just says it's a major internet deal.Let the speculation begin.