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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (10067)	4/6/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, I agree that the coming correction will correct the 5 wave move up off the October 8th '98 low. Wave Rules state a wave 2 corrections MUST retrace at least 20% of wave 1. The NORMAL retracement range is 30 to 80% of wave 1, with the most likely being 50 or 61.8%. Wave 2 CAN do a 100% retrace of wave 1, but it would be impossible to predict that at this point. A retest of the July '98 high area (1192 SPX) would seem reasonable at this point, with stop runs underneath but probably no closes below that level. When the patterns complete themselves, hopefully we'll know more. I'm tracking the completion of the 5th wave off the Oct. lows on the 2 week chart on the MDA website, to be updated shortly. Regards, David P.S. I don't agree with Prechter's supercycle wave count. I think Supercycle Wave 1 started from the 1789 origin of the U.S. markets, and ran through the Jan. 1973 peak. SS Wave 2 correction ran from 1/73 to 4/80. SS Wave 3 ran from 4/80 to 10/97 peak. SS Wave 4 ran from 10/97 peak to 10/8/98 trough. SS Wave 5 began from there, and we're near completing Primary 1 of Cycle 1 of SS Wave 5. So we'll have a Primary Wave 2 correction to correct the 10/8/98-4/?/99 move, then head much higher over the coming years.