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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jeffbas who wrote (6602)4/7/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Michael Burry  Respond to of 78519
 
Jeffrey, I very much respect your opinion. And I agree with all my heart.

But my heart has never been a very good investor - hence the 24 points I gave to AMZN investors. Still, there'll probably always be a part of my portfolio that I reserve for actively betting against the tulips.

It probably won't be fun when the world crashes down. But I'm not going to refuse to buy stocks that meet my criteria: a deep contrarian play of a business I'd like to buy outright. So far this year, it's putting me ahead of the Nasdaq in a tech-free manner, and it's really hard to give up something that's working. Especially when everywhere I see people saying that my type of strategy isn't working in this market. In fact, I'm working even harder to be faithful to my strategy, and refine what's working, toss what's not.

Is it really true that when the internets crash the whole market will crash? With how incredibly narrow this market is, can it be that it is representative of a fragmented market that will rise and fall heterogeneously in ways that the indices can never measure? After all, the indices certainly have not represented the intelligent investor the last few years on the way up. Why will they on the way down?

I don't know the answer to these questions, but for now I'm risking be one of the greater fools and focusing on managing my portfolios by individual stock selection rather than market calls.

Mike



To: jeffbas who wrote (6602)4/7/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78519
 
I'm starting to wonder when the managers of all these undervalued micro and small caps will just start taking their cos private. If it is to be that the advent of big-money mutual funds will forever cause this huge a mismatch in valuation between small and large caps, I can't imagine that many small caps would continue to stay public. And IMO the biggest risk in buying undervalued small caps/holding onto declining small caps is a "take-under" or privatization that will cause the value not to be realized.

Just trying to figure out the new paradigm.

Mike



To: jeffbas who wrote (6602)4/8/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78519
 
Re: New Paradigm. Proof of my point. I got a cold call this morning
saying how this firm recommended Charles Schwab at $55 and it has since doubled, and wouldn't I like to hear about their next great idea.