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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (8807)	4/7/1999 12:12:00 PM
From: David Colvin	Respond to of 10072

Ken, I just wanted to say again that both you and Mike did a great job projecting earnings. Great work! It takes a lot of time. Thanks for the compliment. However, I don't know about Mike but as far as I'm concerned it remains to be seen if I have done a "great" job. That will born out over the next year when real results can be compared to my predictions. If it turns out that I'm way off, particularly in the area of net earnings, I'm not going to be very happy about it and will seriously consider selling all my Iomega stock once and for all. Also, I will learn something from the experience, which isn't all bad. If your meaning of great pertains to the level of detail and logic I presented (even if it's all wrong) I, again appreciate the compliment. Personally, I feel I have some pretty compelling arguments to support my predictions, but others may not see it that way at all. Discussing this stuff sure beats the heck out of the bear bashing that can be more typical of the thread. As you immediately noticed from my "comparison" table, Mike and I are worlds apart from you in our net EPS predictions for 1999. Mike = $.31, Me =$.29 and you = $.05. It's obvious that someone has a big problem here!!!! But you did not see me come here and imply that you are wrong, lost your mind, need to reboot your brain or any other smart ass remarks. Why? because you are entitled to your opinion, as we all are, and as long as we can all provide reasoning for our posts I will not close my mind to other's thoughts. I don't know everything....far from it, and listening to others may just be good for my pocketbook because someone else just may see or know something that I don't or haven't considered. The only thing that puts me in a "bear bashing" mood is someone coming on this board and implying that we are all a bunch of cretins or buffoons for owning Iomega stock or outright calling people names which is a personal attack. I've said it before.....I think such behavior is rude, disrespectful and really makes my blood boil! I know, and everyone here knows you have been a bear for some time now....so what! As long as you present your opinions and analyses without an attitude, you'll never see me assailing you for expressing your opinions because I just may learn something from it. Dave

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (8807)	4/7/1999 12:20:00 PM
From: Rocky Reid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10072

RE: Earnings I have already given estimates for this 1st Q '99 of $375 Million in Revenues (down -8% from 1998s 1st Q), and Breakeven Earnings. I will further give guidance estimates for 2nd Q '99 of $365 Million (down -7% from 2nd Q 98) and a loss of ($0.02). I will further predict that Zip drive Retail mix will drop into the 30%-35% range, causing very troubling margin issues. As the Zip drive nears the end of its life span, Retail % will continue its steady decline. And all of the Zip drives that have either failed or fallen into disuse will soon surpass (if they haven't already) current sales furthering the ever-declining Tie Ratio. I refuse to offer any guidance past 2nd Q because I am waiting on news on Iomega's new MR drive, and to see if/when ORB ramps. If Orb ramps and Iomega does not roll out their MR drive, Jaz may contribute to profits in the 2nd and 3rd Q's, but 3th Q ORB will start having a dire impact on the Jaz line causing heavy losses (as SparQ did to Jaz) . If Iomega rolls out their MR drive, I estimate that they can keep margins closer to breakeven (although still slightly negative) and keep a portion of this niche. In the next couple of years I see Iomega surviving as a much smaller company than it is now, with a Market Cap around $750 Million by March 2000. (This gives a current IOM share price of about $2.75. This stock price could be lower if Iomega is allowed to dilute their shares (as per the current proxy).