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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (49297)	4/7/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

Mark, I hate to say this but I think I've become one. Day-trader that is. You'll just have to trust me on that.

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (49297)	4/7/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164687

Amazon hit the 180 level hard yesterday but it wasn't enough to break to the upside. This marks a short-term reversal. Some longer term TA indicators look bearish - the MACD shows a deterioration despite the huge move up in the stock - a sign the stock is no longer being accumulated and is being dumped when it moves up. It's not surprising that the 180 level draws profit taking. In the past Yahoo! ran up ahead of earnings and then trailed down in the following weeks. That was followed by continued gains. Amazon won't report earnings until late in the month. Amazon has added a lot of new product areas including drugs and auctions. I guess they can get into toys next or do some alliances with autos, insurance, travel, etc. Those are hotly contested areas already. On-line travel and insurance are very low margin business. Autos already have several outlets and manufacturer's behind it and it's unclear what Amazon can do in that marketplace. Still they have around 8 million registered customers (or freebie takers). They have demonstrated that they can go into other businesses and win considerable market share. At least that has proven to be true for similar products such as music. The next big thing will be to see how well Amazon is able to do in the new areas they recently have ventured into. Are they able to challenge eBay? Can Amazon challenge the comp in every area they go into? It doesn't yet matter what the bottom line is as long as AMZN can show that sales continue to grow at a rapid pace. I give the stock a 20% chance of breaking through the 185 level a 30% chance of staying in a range between 140 and 160 and a 50% chance of moving down to the 100 level, probably after the earnings period is over in 2-4 weeks.