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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BSGrinder who wrote (54961)4/7/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Tommaso  Respond to of 132070
 
I was just comparing the Federal Reserve release from last week with the one for February 4.

bog.frb.fed.us

In the 3 months ended December, 1998, the monetary aggregates had been growing:

M1:6.8%
M2:11.2%
M3:13.3%

This adequately accounts for the money that became available for continued speculation, particularly in the Tech and Internet stocks.

But for the 3 months that ended February the figures are:

M1 1.1%
M2:7.4%
M3:8.7%

Still loose by many historical measures, but a drop of over 4% in the rate of growth over a two-month period.

I admit to an excess of wishful thinking when I compare this to the deceleration that preceded the market retreat in the summer of 1998, but as I recall, it is somewhat similar. And this time the Fed has seen what the consequences were of its precipitous three-step rate cut last fall. I don't think they will dare raise rates, but I think they might be willing to let the markets slide somewhat further than they did before cutting again.

All speculation, of course.