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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (20332)	4/7/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

FWIW, Those focused on the LONG term stock price potential of Vivus should pay particular attention to Vivus' R&D. Those focused on the SHORT term stock price potential of Vivus need to focus on MUSE sales both domestic and international going into this quarter. As far as domestic sales go Vivus still has its hands tied behind its back with no marketing partner and thus far a "do nothing" strategy to promote PCP education of MUSE. Of course the most effective factor would be the signing of a domestic partner but Lee Wilson has still failed to produce any type of an agreement(so what else is new?). In Q1 1999 based on IMS calculations we saw the worse sales for MUSE since its introduction in January 1997. Looking at the 12 week period from January 2, 1999 to March 26, 1999, the average weekly new prescription count was 1,714. Refill average for the same period was 1,626 and the total average was 3,340. The 1998 Q3 total weekly average was about 4,100 and the 1998 Q4 weekly average was about 3,800. During the second 1/2 of 1998 Vivus still had some sales force exposure via the Alza sales people but this was considered relatively ineffective. During Q1 1999 Vivus had absolutely NO sales force supporting MUSE. Something has to change here SOON. When I say soon I mean now. If Vivus can't sign a domestic partner today, then it needs to present us with a low cost strategy to promote MUSE in the United States. Mr Wilson READ MY LIPS: Some plan is better than no plan! If you can't sign a domestic partner between now and the April 21st conference call then you had better have a strategy to promote MUSE in the US (the most lucrative pharmaceutical market in the world) during the April conference call!!! And if you can't ink a partnership by the end of this quarter then you MUST step down and resign as Vivus' CEO and allow someone who can makes things happen take over. The international market is a different story. I believe international product sales for Q1 1999 will be approximately $3M or less than 1/2 of last quarters income. We know this is due to the delay in the launch of MUSE in Europe. The next BIG question is when exactly will AstraZeneca launch MUSE in Europe??? Vivus has been told in May. There can be a significant difference in product income depending if MUSE gets fully launched in early May vs the end of May. Perhaps someone who has contact with AZ can get an answer on an exact time line. DaiS, have you established any contact with AZ IR at the London HQs??? It would be nice to get some answers regarding the EU launch of MUSE. One final piece of information that would be nice to know about is Janssen's international sales of MUSE. Seems as if they are the most difficult source to get any information from. We already have read posts from a few Canadians who claim that there is a lack of knowledge and availability of MUSE in their areas. Is this fact or fiction? What is the story on MUSE sales in countries such as Canada, Mexico, South Africa and some of the Asian countries(South Korea, Phillipines, Hong Kong, Thialand, Singapore)? In Vivus' 10k they report a list of countries that approved and licensed MUSE but no information has been provided as to the extent that MUSE has been launched/marketed in these countries. These are important questions that need to be answered. From the 1998 10K: A significant number of MUSE approvals and launches are anticipated during the course of 1999. As of March, 1999, approved/licensed countries include: MARKETING COUNTRY APPROVED PARTNER - -------------------- -------- --------- Argentina November 1997 ASTRA Australia December 1998 ASTRA Austria -- EU March 1999 ASTRA Bahrain September 1998 Janssen Brazil January 1998 ASTRA Canada August 1998 Janssen Chile December 1998 ASTRA Cyprus November 1998 ASTRA Denmark -- EU December 1998 ASTRA France -- EU March 1999 ASTRA Finland -- EU December 1998 ASTRA Germany -- EU February 1999 ASTRA Hong Kong July 1998 Janssen Ireland -- EU February 1999 ASTRA Israel October 1998 Janssen Kuwait January 1999 Janssen Luxembourg -- EU December 1998 ASTRA Macau September 1998 Janssen Mexico May 1998 Janssen The February 1999 ASTRA Netherlands -- EU New Zealand July 1998 ASTRA Norway December 1998 ASTRA Philippines June 1998 Janssen Portugal -- EU February 1999 ASTRA Singapore July 1998 Janssen South Africa May 1998 Janssen South Korea January 1998 Janssen Sweden -- EU April 1998 ASTRA Switzerland February 1998 ASTRA Thailand May 1998 Janssen United Arab Emirates June 1998 Janssen United Kingdom -- EU November 1997 ASTRA Knowing the degree of marketing/launches in these countries certainly can allow for better earnings visibility looking out into this and next quarter.