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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Eddy who wrote (5342)	4/7/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

David--Your wrote: But my point is that for some types of systems there is no possibility of a manual backup... the volumes are simply too large & complex. I wholeheartedly agree. But ya gotta love the optimism displayed by the poster responding to this Dow Jones Newswire article on the Bank of Japan posted to csy2k. ----------------------------------------- <snip> > April 6, 1999 > Dow Jones Newswires > BOJ To Set Aside Y40 Trln For Y2K Problems - Kyodo > > TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said Tuesday it will set aside Y40 trillion > in cash at its head office and branches to cope with emergency situations in > case problems hit computers when the calendar changes to 2000 next year, > Kyodo News reported Tuesday. <snip part of response, continue w/ DJN> > Although the BOJ has reprogrammed its own computer system to prevent the > millennium bug from striking, it has prepared a package of countermeasures > just in case. It is the first central bank among industrial nations to > announce such countermeasures. > According to the package, the BOJ will complete tests by December on > transfer of computer operations to its backup center in Osaka. On Dec. 30, > the central bank will print out data that may be needed if manual processing > of transactions becomes necessary. (responding poster) I believe it; I've seen BOJ documents that say MANUAL PROCESSING. You can make manual contingency plans for a modern financial institution, if you know what you're doing. --------------------------------------------- Yeah sure, you can make manual processing plans for a modern financial institution. Whether or not they'll work is an entirely different matter even if you DO know what you're doing. I had a conversation not that long ago with someone who insisted that manual processing could be done in a situation similar to what you described in your last post. She asserted that if you simply hire enough people to handle the crushing volume it could be done. When I asked where these people would come from, where they would park, find adequate office space, use the restroom, get a drink of water, yaddah, yaddah, yaddah...not to mention if this effort would in fact be more "cost effective" than perhaps a temporary, indefinite shutdown I got the classic RCA dog look and silence. --One a similar note and to continue our airline theme for the day, sometime ago I picked up a reference to a conversation between two guys in the UK who were charged with trying to find "parking space" for the numerous aircraft that might be grounded at rollover. This was about the time the International Air Traffic Association made noises re: reducing the number of flights if necessary. Apparently at anyone time during a 24 hr. period about 50% of all aircraft are actually airborne? (I think I need help on this factoid.) Anyway, these guys had no idea where they might put these planes and still allow airports to operate at reduced capacity. They started joking about the open fields in Scotland...

To: David Eddy who wrote (5342)	4/7/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

But my point is that for some types of systems there is no possibility of a manual backup... the volumes are simply too large & complex. David, You're quite correct, IMO. I wasn't trying to imply that retail companies would be able to easily migrate to manual backup systems. What I was referring to were critical infrastructure operations like power, refining, transportation, and water, wherein automated processes and monitoring equipment were installed to replace the human employees who had previously performed those tasks. For electronic retailers it would be a matter of going back to manual checks, cash, or actually physically calling the credit card verification agent to approve the transaction. Again, I'm referring to critical infrastructure issues. Retailers wouldn't be selling anything anyway if there is no power.. etc. But there is a chance that the economy will suffer recessionary effects from slowing business "velocity" and shrinking consumer confidence as spenders become savers and hunker down. However, that scenario is far from the "kendemonium" scenario our particular "chicken little" is purporting will fall upon us. I just am not convinced that there exists convincing evidence that there will be a total blackout of power or critical infrastructure here in the US. And I think people are overlooking all the ways that humans can intervene in the automated process/monitoring operation in order to maintain critical systems functionality. However, your point is well-taken. Regards, Ron