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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (581)	4/7/1999 2:06:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Respond to of 4974

Darkest before the dawn... As I've pointed out on the value thread, I spent some time in the last few weeks going through DAK's list and selecting a couple cheap+munchables... Regeneron was one...looks like I was a couple days early buying, just dumb bad luck. As you have said, most managers of second and third tier seem to fit in the caught-in-the -headlights category. But I think anybody would be frozen in the situation which is at hand-- knowing the offer is coming and you're going to get canned or moved or whatever. Presumably there is plenty of great management when you get into the first tier companies, and these guys are smart enough to know what to do with their inflated currency too. But they better do it soon, PE's of 30-50 don't last forever-- in the next recession all those S&P500 type stocks which have been racing up up up for the last ten years, the index stocks, are going to tank (after all, we are now where Japan was in terms of valuation when the Nikkei was at 30,000...) The thing of it is, when it all starts happening wont you feel a bit ripped off when potential ten baggers get reduced to mere triples when bought out? Anyway, I'll bet a shiny penny that Regeneron gets taken out before my Onyx, and takers? All that said, I have been surprised not only by the lack of buyouts so far by the likes of PG and MRK...but also the real highfliers. Nevermind 37 times earnings--what about Dell and MSFT...those stocks are twice as inflated as big cap pharma, they ought to start shopping soon too. Okay, that's rant of the day. Anybody who read that, please point out any bad thinking...sure seems obvious to me--if the best value is in biotech, especially these platform R&D type companies, the bidding should start anytime now... --MM