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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (18334)	4/7/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

MH, Hopefully the folks at Rambus will replace themselves (all the best companies do)! Seriously, I think that, as long as we stay involved in these types of chat groups, we should have plenty of warning, such as the IBM news yesterday. Keep in mind how long it's taken to get the Rambus infrastructure in place -- any new breakthrough technology would have to go through the same stages of getting key industry players to commit, building an infrastructure, etcetera. If any possible Rambus successor comes along, we'll hear about it first as just a technology, at which point we'll debate the merits ad infinitum, then they'll start to announce infrastructure deals, at which point we'll debate the merits ad infinitum, then they'll announce some design wins, at which point we'll debate the merits ad infinitum, then they'll announce a ship date, at which point we'll debate the merits ad infinitum, and by then two to three years will have passed. As the risk increases that Rambus might lose the business, the prudent investor will reduce his/her stake. But it won't just be a sudden collapse of the stock. As to the later stages of the life cycle, we probably disagree on when that is, and there's nothing we can do now to resolve that. Since the "other half" of the market for Rambus DRAM won't even really start to kick in until late 2000 or early 2001, I believe that we'll see significant growth in company earnings easily through the 2002-2003 timeframe. And that isn't counting the applications for Rambus that we're not even considering yet (DVD/VCRs and other home appliances, handheld devices, etc.). So growth may continue even after that. I personnally expect that we'll easily see a PE of 70 in 2001, which, if they were to hit $10 EPS, would give a $700 stock price. Which also isn't to say that I wouldn't start reducing my Rambus position -- we'll have to see what conditions look like. We may be in an incredibly ugly worldwide depression once this Kosovo thing turns into WWIII (low, low, low, low probability) and Rambus will still be making $.32 EPS. Who knows. But most important, I still have faith that Rambus is trying to figure out a way to be the company that replaces Rambus. Dave

To: MileHigh who wrote (18334)	4/7/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

You are probably right. I wonder if RDRAM will be able to come up with the follow on product, or will it be IBM with their huge research engine. Either way, sell timing is key as you so correctly pointed out. I guess we have to play that one by ear. I just wonder if RDRAM has extra added longevity since the game makers, Nintendo and Playstation, are using it. Or maybe that means they have less time to live, since those guys usually latch on to the fast tech out there. I guess we'll see soon enough! Good luck to you.

To: MileHigh who wrote (18334)	4/7/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: Herb Blair	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

How about if rambus designs the next stage in the cycle too?<EOM>