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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Loring who wrote (26550)	4/7/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

I don't see a major correction until we get past earnings in April The Street was so wrong about the economy and you have all of these tech stocks depressed. The next move is up with INTC and DELL. NOVL will play catch-up.

To: Loring who wrote (26550)	4/7/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Respond to of 42771

Loring - Re.:"...but nevertheless Merrill Lynch ..." I should have known. Who else but MER can make this "smart" call? y2k efforts are now in the testing phase, some late-comers are trying to make it by the year end. y2k expenses were in the last year's budgets. Ram

To: Loring who wrote (26550)	4/8/1999 9:33:00 AM
From: Bearded One	Respond to of 42771

Once again, I'm going to go for the simple explanation. Microsoft is talking about a new Beta for Windows 2000, people are starting to believe that Microsoft will come out with a new OS this year, and are worried about the impact on Novell both from a marketshare and a stock-market standpoint. We need to nail down as precisely as possible what is going to happen when Windows 2000 actually comes out. Let's assume that Windows 2000 does come out this year. We can also assume that it will be crippleware-- if they are not distributing tools to manage Intellimirror and Active Directory, then those services don't exist in any real sense. So where does that leave us? Despite my enthusiasm, I've approached all this from a technical standpoint. I'm not an expert at all in the IT world-- I came to Novell from a simple syllogism: a) Bill Gates said directories are important. b) 35+ million lines of code can't be done in the time allocated by Microsoft. c) Novell was separating NDS from Netware so NDS was't competing against the Microsoft installed base directly. d) Hence NDS would gain marketshare and NDS-based-services would be a source of revenue for Novell. e) A 8 billion dollar company taking a big piece of a pie called important by a 400 billion dollar company is going to make a lot of money. This all goes to hell (in public perception) if Microsoft actually comes out with directory services-no matter how crippled-, so the first thing we need to know is-- will Microsoft actually be coming out with directory services in the next 6 months? I'm not saying Novell won't succeed, I'm just saying the perception problems for Novell will come back with a vengeance for a while. The next thing we need to know is how will Win2000 directory services run in a mixed environment. Ok, the easy answer is "not at all." But what if MSFT comes out with "Win2000 directory client services for Win98/Unix/...?" or something like that? How hard is that to do?