To: cm who wrote (6316 ) 4/11/1999 10:46:00 AM From: cm Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11417
At The Risk Of Courting Wrath... This WAVX is a good'en for sure. But, I'd like to sound a minor cautionary note going forward. This note of caution will, I pray, be drowned out by the chorus of good news in the coming weeks. And, to repeat, I'm as strong a WAVX advocate as you can find. But, I also read and research a lot. Went through literally thousands of search results this weekend to trace the full arc of this company. Found the article that referenced Peter Sprague's initial reasons for creating the company: he was frustrated with the cost of business research on the Web... having spent $2900 for what he perceived to be $290 worth of value. Found the article where the Zona Research analyst (of that day, at least) questioned whether WAVX could ever achieve critical mass... as opposed to the Zona Research analyst who more recently was supportive. Found an E3 site where a guy who attended the most recent conference noted that Wave Systems had a booth as well as Cendant Software. (It was the WAY he noted this... sort of like... Wave Systems is a player... a tone of "no surprise") Found an intriguing list of Broadband Internet Council members, some heavy-hitting names and companies, like Motro at SEEK... and NO LESS THAN THREE WAVE SYSTEMS executives... more throw weight for WAVX than any other company. I gather this council must now be defunct as there has been no subsequent reference to it that I could find. Found a ton of old SI posts on various search engines. (A reminder: a fleeting thought, like "Wow! We hit $20! <eom>", could have quite a half-life in cyberspace.) And after all the reading, I remain a devoted WAVX fan. There has been a sea-change in the kind and quality of deals they've been doing here recently. HWP is a very, very respected and respectable company. One that I know quite a bit about. This HWP VerSecure public endorsement is huge... and I think the full import of this will be coming to light in the near future. Plus, the more I read up about SARNOFF, the more important this connection would seem to be. However, I prefer my investments mixed with a little bitters... just to remind me of how sweet things can be. Accuse me of looking a gift horse in the mouth and doing root canal surgery, if you will. But, here goes... (1): Over the years, WAVX has done some important sounding deals that either didn't pan out or have panned out in extremely quiet, nay, inaudible ways. (Perhaps, this stuff is pitched so that only dogs can hear it.) Specifically, ZakSat... then a European ISDN maker... then a European leader in ADSL. Then there was the Palo Alto trial a few years back. And what the heck ever happened to the Harvard Medical Library trial with content distribution that Gilder referred to in an old article? If these deals (and trials) are actually LIVE considerations now, PLEASE disabuse me of my little notions here. I would love to hear, for example, that our European ISDN thing was happening. (2): If you do a search at the IBM site, you will get only very moldy references to WAVX. If the IBM/WAVX connection is still a vital one--and I would love it if it were--you would think there might be a little more public information out there. Now, we can all say it's "behind the scenes" stuff. But... Like I said, these are MINOR issues. And, for every publicly announced deal that didn't (apparently) yield fruit, there is a situation like ITG, where money has changed hands because WAVX has hit a performance benchmark. But, it is important, at least to me, to keep my eyes wide open going forward. Announcing deals is, at least in this situation, not as critical as EXECUTING upon them. (I realize that that comment alone will make me appear to be an atavistic investor.) If you read the old ZakSat release, it sounded pretty important. And ZakSat is a major player in foreign markets. I speak as somebody who wants to hold onto this one for years to come. If I were speaking as a trader, I would say something like, "Hey, just announce some more deals... execution be damned. I just like riding the wave." For Whatever It's Worth... and IRTRTBW (I Reserve The Right To Be Wrong), c m