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To: J. P. who wrote (31338)	4/7/1999 8:28:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 86076

pei-intl.com <<We are also at a critical juncture where capital MUST now make a decision once again to buy or sell equities. New highs this week cannot be ruled out on Tuesday or Wednesday basis the S&P 500. The true issue will be sustainability. We simply need to score new highs beyond next week (April 12th) in order to see another surge of buying ahead. Lacking that buying surge on good volume, some sort of a correction becomes likely and the risks are now only increased for a near-term correction. Whether a high here during the first week of April turns out to be a major high going into 2002 will be determined by the magnitude of the decline. A correction that HOLDS above 1147, the first line of long-term support, could still be followed by new highs later in the year. This initial support represents a potential 14% correction. However, the primary support has now risen to the 952-941 area basis the nearest futures. A correction to this level would represent a 29% decline. Still, keep in mind that the 1987 Crash of 2 months represented a 43% correction and the market still survived. A correction that produces a monthly closing BELOW the 941 level will indeed warn that this correction will last more than 2 months, which has been the life expectance of serious corrections since 1987 including the last one from the July 20th high. A monthly closing BELOW 802 would be necessary at this time before our model would warn of a bear market into 2002. Keep in mind that a decline down to 802 is still only a 39% correction, which is less than the 1987 2-month decline. >>

To: J. P. who wrote (31338)	4/7/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: TheStockFairy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

The CCs took a nice little plunge. We all know that at some point, people really have to look at what they are buying, and why they are buying it. No hot dog stand is worth $450k. No net stock is worth 550x future earnings. Here is the picture. Joe "expert at the market since 1999" Consumer comes home to his new 400k house in his new Lexus SUV. His wife, adorning the new diamond tennis bracelet announces that that their 3 year old son was voted most above average at their private daycare. They sit down to some crab legs for dinner, and mull over the bills a bit. AMEX has 4k from their trip to Europe, 9k from the new deck they put on the house, 3k for the gardner and the new plants. Visa has 30k from the furniture. MC has 10k in cash advances for the down payment, which also cleaned out most of their savings. "My portfolio looked great today honey," says proud Joe. "AOL is up 100% this month, we have a 350% gain in Yahoo, and our broadcast.com stock is really taking off!" "Wonderful! I get a little nervous from time to time about our credit card debt, and we have just enough money to pay bills with your salary. We need that extra from the stock market," says Sally Slightwit. "That's fine, I still want to keep sending $300 a month into the stock market though, it looks like we will be able to retire by the time we are 38." The next day rolls around, and the usual smiling faces on CNBC arn't grinning ear to ear that morning. Sally looks with a confused look at Joe and asks, "Joe, what does lock limit down mean?"