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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (16925)	4/8/1999 8:25:00 AM
From: wizzards wine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34811

Thanks for the update Paul...My view on AMAT is that the current PO would be around 90 but it must take out 71 first, and the indicators need to support the move....if the semi's stay in X's OK...but if they reverse to O's watch out... Just my thoughts Later Preston

To: Paul V. who wrote (16925)	4/8/1999 11:24:00 AM
From: Bwe	Respond to of 34811

Hi Paul, AMAT is one where Chartcraft and I differ. Chartcraft has been short the stock in their Investor's Intelligence "Short Sale" portfolio since 3/11/99 @ $61 5/8. They're looking for $45. The recurring High Poles (two at the unofficial Bearish Resistance Line) and the at the time bearish Semiconductor group Bullish % were seemingly the primary factors in their bearish outlook for the stock . I've preferred to play the main trend of the stock which is bullish. The stock's RS is B+ (RS Buy and in X's) and AMAT is trading above it's Bullish Support Line. It's been a two way street on the stock's p&f chart, however. Lower tops and higher bottoms give mixed signals. Revised BSL's have been broken while Revised BRL's have been broken as well. AMAT's current chart notation at $65 is $3 from another High Pole. I'm watching the BSL, now at $61 and watching for a potential sell signal at $57 and a break of the March bottom at $56. The BSL and the RS are my ultimate long term guides. Should AMAT get going again soon, a Bullish Resistance Line (brl) from way back in 6/98, now at $81, would be my intermediate price target. This brl, while not "official" (meaning it's been broken on more than one occasion) any longer, is a very good guide for the upper end of AMAT's trading range. The stock hasn't been near this brl since February suggesting the stock has upside room to move. You need to see this brl on a longer term hand chart to appreciate the trendline. It won't be evident on a computer screen. An "in play" brl at $72 would be my short term target. AMAT's close proximity to the BSL suggests a good buying opportunity. The stock is also near it's 50 day MA at $62 3/8 or so. If you like the stock's fundamental story ($1.04 for FY99 - up from $.64 3 months ago, and $2.23 for FY00, up from $2.16 3 months ago), then the confidence will be there that the BSL will hold. I just hate those darn High Poles. Take care, Bruce