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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (3331)	4/8/1999 6:54:00 AM
From: Mr. Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3736

<<What do you know about a new slurry-less CMP system being developed by a start-up Company called Obsidian? (Check today's semiconductor business news). Sounds interesting.>> I haven't read the SBN article yet, but I'm very familiar with Obsidian's tool. It is interesting, but not a competitive issue at this point. The main problem with the tool is that their success is dependent on the development of slurry-less pads. 3M is the maker of the only version of these that I'm aware of. They are not ready for high-volume production. Everyone has looked at them, and everyone's determined that they have problems that prevent them from being suitable for implementation into high-volume production. It will be a challenge for Obsidian to continue to endure losses every quarter while awaiting a pad development breakthrough if it takes a while. As far as SpeedFam-IPEC is concerned, AMAT is still the dominant competitive threat. The next tier of potential competitors in the 2000+ timeframe are Ebara, Strausbaugh, Lam, and Obsidian. I'd guess that 1-2 of those will be quite successful and that 1-2 will exit the business by 2002 due to a failure to reach the critical mass that it takes to continue to fund the huge R&D needed to compete in this capital-intensive market. Profitable investing, Mr. Sam