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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael P. Michaud who wrote (7494)	4/8/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: Erik T	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

From a post on 4/4/99: >>>From high-speed Internet access to digital cable TV, demand for telecommunications services is booming in the Bay Area. But delivery of some high-tech offerings is being slowed by a decidedly low-tech problem: lack of blue-collar workers.<<< The management of this company appear to be very good, as evidenced by their strong deals and large market penetration, and I suspect they will work very hard to get as many people on cable internet service as soon as is possible. But I do see this potential lack of skilled installers as a concern going forward. It is labor intensive to set-up ATHM service. AOL has 15 million subscribers and will likely continue to grow. ATHM has 330,000+ and will certainly grow at a faster rate, but to justify the current valuation it seems they need to grow their customer base by at least 100% to 200% a year. That would be 330,000--660,000--1.3 million--2.6 million--5.2 million. Then after 5 years they would only have around 10.5 million. How many workers need to be hired across the country so that they can install service for 5.2 million people in a year? Or is the current valuation reflective of ATHM's market dominance ten or fifteen years from now? (Which may still be reasonable) Just some thoughts. Erik (IMHO)

To: Michael P. Michaud who wrote (7494)	4/8/1999 10:29:00 AM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 29970

To: lrrp (31 ) From: ahhaha Thursday, Mar 25 1999 2:53PM ET Reply # of 35 It's worth plenty. There may be a little indigestion, but this baby will burp. CMCSA is not burdened with the same problems ATHM has. In particular, they don't have TCI. Nonetheless, the company needs something more than just indirect connection to TWX. They need a large telecommunications company, basically an RBOC to sponsor an HFC upgrade program. The MSFT investment can't hurt in that more can come, but the MSFT connection is sticky with government oversight and probably nudging should be avoided until MSFT's problems are settled. I don't know this company at all, but I will be investigating.