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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (17995)	4/8/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 18691

Roger, whats going on with the SW sector? Everyday another one gets its trouncing. Today, HNCS off at 16 from 27, Architel at 8 from 18. Only bad earnings & outlook? C.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (17995)	4/8/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

And a lot of them have been making a ton of money following that belief in the past two years. A lot won't sell before the crash, but the smart ones who take profits are driving fancy new sports cars thanks to the mania. Can't fight the tape too much. That said, I still like shorting garbage like ICCAC. Looks like it's cracking today.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (17995)	4/8/1999 6:10:00 PM
From: Rajiv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Check out BKS as a speculative long play. It is spinning off its internet division. barnesandnoble.com will be hyped up a lot in the next few days/weeks - BKS should easily see prices north of 40. barnesandnoble.com IPO is in the week of April 26 according to ipocentral.com Regards. Rajiv

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (17995)	4/9/1999 4:06:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

Here's a new twist on Internut valuations from Fortune: One of the newer, and innovative, ways to value Internet companies we've come across is "theoretical" EPS or TEPS. PaineWebber's James Preissler explains, in his note on Yahoo!'s earnings: He calculated Yahoo!'s TEPS by multiplying his estimated 2000 revenues by 38.8%, which he believes is the "best case" net margin that the web portal could generate as a mature company. Preissler notes that "this calculation is a truly idealistic one, as it assumes minimal risk. However, while we realize that our assumptions are aggressive, we believe they are within reach for the companies over the long term and are subject to revisions, both upward and downward. The reason we chose to value based on TEPS is to attempt to unlock the earnings power of these portals and we believe this could be achieved by looking at them as companies that have moved through the start-up phase. Our assumptions do not include any synergies from possible mergers or acquisitions." If Yahoo! hits that net margin rate, it would put it in Microsoft territory, a truly elite class. Even so, Preissler rates Yahoo! as a neutral, and notes that his target price is $145 (up from $140), well below what Yahoo! shares trade for. What a riot!

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (17995)	4/9/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Hello Mr. Babb: EFAX trading 30-ish I was looking ot short at 22 or above. Now it looks on the rise. Do you consider it a fair short yet, or is there a new factor for greater caution. To me, facsimile by e-mail messaging may have some convience, but the loss of security would be a big issue for most fax documents which are of value because of the time element and likely proprietary content. That should be fatal to the business concept. However, I am skittish with some foreboding that any nutso internet outfit could endow their ballooned script on EFAX in a merger rather than doing it themselves for less money than swapping the script into a supportive market and hiring the people to do the job. Your thoughts please. Best regards, m