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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (10242)	4/8/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Princeton Economics: I know many on this thread read Armstrong. I thought you might be interested in the following email exchange I just completed with Mr Smith, who sends out the updates. VERY interesting, I think. He says today is a turning point-- but it could be a turn UP not down, as everyone (at least I did) seems to think. Of course, his reply comes first. --------------------------------- Smith writes (4/8/99): I don't know Jerry Favors, so I don't know in what way we disaggree with him. As to our prediction, we are confident that we will see a dramatic move. A turning point is a turning point, but it does not necessarily have to be down. If you see continuing New Highs on the DOW beyond the end of next week, this would indicate that the market will continue up into July or perhaps Sept for an even more impressive Bubble Top. If capital flows shift away from Europe and Japan (which is clearly possible) and towards US assets, you might have a blowoff rally of unimaginable magnitude. This could easily take the DOW to the 11,000-14,000 range. Personally though, I would prefer to see the mkt dip now for a small correction because if we can the mega rally into July/Sept, then the correction will be all the worse when it finally comes. Even now we could see a 20-40% correction. If the rally continues into Sept, you should look for a 50-70% correction. If you are thinking of shorting this market, don't be a hero. Wait for a lower high to develop. No point in shooting at the Highs. Its too risky. If the mkt shows weakness in the next few days and then rallies back to form a lower high---THAT'S YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO BUY PUTS OR GO SHORT. If you don't like to short side, then that lower high would also be your opp to get out of existing long positions. >---------- >From: Dennis Patterson[SMTP:dpatters@crab.rutgers.edu] >Sent: Wednesday, April 07, 1999 5:42 PM >To: James Smith >Subject: Re: April 8 > >Mr Smith, > >I subscribe to the Cp Mkts Review. > >With respect to the 8 April prediction, I would like to know at what point >you or Mr Arnstrong would deem this prediction to have been falsified. I >say this as one who was out at the top last year, owing to your work and >that of Jerry Favors, with whom you now disagree. > >Respectfully, > >Dr Dennis Patterson > > > >

To: donald sew who wrote (10242)	4/8/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

donald: Well, so far just about all my expectations in my MDA UPDATE last night are on track. Of course, the day is young...<g> The TYX.X is moderating and looks like it may well find support above the (dark yellow) support line which was the recent low. Looks like the RUT may well head down into the lower half of its trading envelope. The COMPX is beginning to give back some of the exuberance as of late and is struggling around the support line from the highs of Jan. (dark yellow) The UTIL is moderating and putting in some retrace from yesterday before it heads lower. Of course, it has resistance at the centerline of its trading envelope and the center tine of it s/t rising fork. The TRAN looks like it is going to negate the Bullish Pennant. That portends lower prices to come. The DJI (Dow Actual Data) is stalling or pausing, depending on weather it can mount follow through are not. Last nights comments and my charts break down, can be found under my charts at the MDA Web Site: homestead.com BWDIK Regards, LG