To: Don Dorsey who wrote (67 ) 4/9/1999 12:03:00 PM From: Don Dorsey Respond to of 497
Japanese stock market shows signs of recovery Gains in Japan's Nikkei average offer hope that the nation's economic troubles may be close to an end. By Todd Zaun Associated Press TOKYO -- While the economy remains in tatters and companies have announced extensive cutbacks, Japan's stock market has, somehow, become one of the world's strongest. Thanks in part to a buying binge by foreign investors, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average has surged almost 22 percent so far this year. Its finish Thursday at 16,846.69 marked a fourth straight day of gains and left the key indicator up more than 3,000 points this year and at its the highest close since March 26, 1998, when it finished at 16,980.62. Although unemployment has climbed to a postwar high and consumers remain stubbornly tight-fisted, the bullish investors say there are reasons to believe the worst of Japan's struggle with recession may be over. Recent government efforts to mend banks, they say, could finally make the long-ailing institutions strong again, and a series of steps by firms to overhaul their operations could put them on the road to higher profits. Sound to good to be true? Some cautious investors think it might be. Andrew Callender, a fund manager for Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo, argues that the gap between expectations and reality has grown too wide. And he's waiting for more proof that companies are serious about cost-cutting before committing more money to Japan. "Being skeptical about the Japanese stock market and economy over the last five to eight years has proven to be the correct thing to do," he said. "We just need further evidence restructuring is going to continue." Caution, however, is not the byword in the market these days. Although stocks have been rising for most of the year, the rally really picked up steam from March 5, a day after Japanese banks formally applied for government funds as part of program to clean up bad debts. Japan's banks have been hobbled by $596 billion in bad loans, and investors had been worried that the problem would hamper any efforts to pull the economy out of its tailspin. But the move to use taxpayer money to address the problem convinced a lot of investors that banks could soon recover. "Since March 5, market sentiment has changed dramatically," said Kiyoshi Kimura, a stock strategist in Tokyo for Societe Generale Securities. He predicted the new optimism would fuel the first stage of "a very long-term bull trend" for the Japanese market. Japanese stock funds gained an average of 15 percent in the first quarter of this year, far better than any of the other seven categories of international mutual funds tracked by the Morningstar research service. Buying from foreign investors driven the robust growth. Foreigners bought more Japanese stocks than they sold for five straight months through February and reports for March are expected to show an additional $8 billion in purchases, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Japan's biggest business daily. Flush with profits from the long run-up on Wall Street, many U.S. investors have begun looking for other places to park some money, analysts said. Many are betting that the long economic slump has given companies the push they needed to implement sweeping reforms and restore profitability. Electronics giant NEC Corp. recently announced it would cut 15,000 jobs over the next three years to lower costs. Sony Corp. and Toshiba Corp. have announced similar cutbacks.