To: Kimberly Lee who wrote (1248 ) 4/11/1999 5:47:00 PM From: RockyBalboa Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 108040
Kim, got this from "smallcapinvestor" <FVCX> STOCK OF THE MONTH UPDATES -------------------------- All Stock of the Month reports, as well as a table showing the performance of our picks, are available at: smallcapinvestor.com ----------------------------------------- FVC.COM (FVCX) April 1999 - Current price: $6.375 bidsmallcapinvestor.com HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN CHANGE... Only a week ago, analysts were estimating that FVCX would earn $0.47 this year and more than $0.80 next year. On Tuesday the stock was up sharply and even hit a 52 week high of $20.50. FVCX closed at $17.375, a 32% gain for the day. But after the market closed FVCX revealed some bad news about its short-term earnings prospects and the stock tanked, falling more than $10 to a new 52 week low. Analysts then downgraded FVCX shares and lowered earnings estimates. Instead of being profitable in 1999, analysts are now looking for a loss. What went wrong? On Tuesday afternoon FVCX announced that revenues for the first quarter of 1999 are expected to be significantly below analyst expectations with a significant loss for the quarter. The company anticipates that revenues will be between $8.0 and $8.5 million, and the net loss per share will be between $0.20 and $0.22. FVCX attributed the drop in revenues to a combination of factors, including a significant decline in business through its major OEM partner, Bay Networks, now a part of Nortel Networks. Bay Networks has been FVC.COM's largest customer for the last several years. Negotiations during the quarter to restructure the companies' relationship resulted in a significant reduction in joint sales activity. Sales to Bay/Nortel fell to approximately 25% in the first quarter, compared with approximately 43% as previously reported for the fourth quarter of 1998. In addition, the company stated that Nortel has indicated its intention to move from stocking inventory to having FVC.COM drop-ship to Nortel's customers. In order to reflect this change, CEO Rich Beyer, who joined the FVCX in January of this year, stated that the company will now record its sales to Nortel on a sell-through basis and has implemented this change effective December 31, 1998. Therefore, FVC.COM is reducing its previously announced revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 1998 by approximately $7.0 to $7.5 million to defer the revenue on inventory of FVC.COM products held by Nortel on December 31, 1998. Such revenues under the revised policy are now being recognized as and when such products are sold by Nortel. Sales for the fourth quarter 1998 are being revised to approximately $4.7 to $5.2 million; earnings per share will be revised accordingly to a net loss per share of approximately $0.20 and $0.22. Commenting on the announcement, Beyer said, "We are confident in the future prospects for the Company. In the first quarter, our business with non-Nortel partners grew approximately 25 percent year-on-year, we broadened the base of our distribution channel, we enhanced our product offerings, and we have continued to strengthen our leadership position in the enterprise video networking market. I believe that we have taken prudent financial steps to make FVC.COM a much healthier organization over the long-term, and to place the Company in a much better position to scale for future growth." Separately, as previously announced, the company has recomputed the in-process research and development charge (IPR&D) for its acquisition of ICAST. In accordance with new SEC guidelines, the company has reduced its estimate of the amount allocated to IPR&D in the ICAST acquisition by $1.5 million, from $6.2 million to $4.7 million. The incremental impact will be $87,000 per quarter, bringing the total charge for goodwill and other purchased intangibles to approximately $130,000 per quarter beginning the fourth quarter of 1998 and each quarter going forward for five years. In view of the slower than expected growth of first quarter revenues and the uncertainty of timing in some major projects, FVC.COM is taking a more cautious view of its near-term growth and will be lowering its internal forecast for the year. Revenues are expected to continue to grow throughout the remainder of the year, although at a slower pace than anticipated earlier. Press release: newsvest.com Based on information released by FVCX so far, it currently looks like the long-term potential for FVC.COM is unchanged. The company has great technology and the future looks very bright. However, the short-term picture now looks a lot worse than it did a week ago. FVCX will likely lose money this year rather than earn about $0.47. Unless FVCX releases some very positive news in the near future, it could take a few quarters for FVCX shares to recover from this setback and start hitting new highs again. But if we get some good news soon (large orders), shares should start to recover more quickly. FVCX's actual results for the quarter are now expected to be released on Tuesday, April 13. (They were originally scheduled for April 8.) The conference call after earnings are released should be very interesting. SmartMoney also had a write-up explaining what happened with FVCX:smartmoney.com And on Friday two class action lawsuits were filed against FVCX: Cohen, Milstein, Hausfeld & Toll:newsvest.com Milberg Weiss: newsvest.com ------------- IS