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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AugustWest who wrote (4425)	4/8/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Benny Baga	Respond to of 20297

>>>you have 8000 for ntbk. That's assuming 100% sign up for billing? Or am I missing the numbers? no. There is no way to get bill pay numbers for NTBK or WFC. In fact I assume that bill pay growth should lag behind online growth, at least in these early stages. Eventually, bill pay will catch up, due to consumers looking for more services through existing online relationships. Plus, once banks are comfortable with the number of users they have and they have a decent number of online users, they will look to advertise (push) bill pay to attract new customers and retain current ones. In summary, while NTBK, TBFC, or even EGRP are realizing growth now, we should eventually follow and catch up. Bill Pay's ramp starts later, but is steeper. Benny(IMHO)

To: AugustWest who wrote (4425)	4/8/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

Here one measure....I'm using currently When Integrion said they hit 750,000 subscribers they also said that they had 15% of the Market...so the market per Integrion measure must have been near 5 Million on line banking back then...(750,000/.15) integrion.com CheckFree had 2.6 Million of that ~5 Million by the end of December, And I'm sure there is a lag in the time someone goes on line for banking...and when they get around feeling comfortable doing "bill pay too"...and then some probably never do....and then some don't use banks..they use a Schwab....and then some use Quicken or Money. So it the population 5 Million at 'Banks', or Banks + Credit Unions + Broker Accounts + PFMS? Hell I don't know. SO I'm using the smallest number 5 Million and figured CheckFree had 2.6 Million of them or about 1/2 of the total. IF they have 75% of the bill pay market which is 1/2 of the total on line bankers, THEN the on line bill pay market was at that time about 3.5 Million(2,600,000/.75)...SO in my mind at least 30% who sign up for on line banking..don't do bill pay YET or NEVER will. Apply that to the +458,000 reported by Benny's listing this Quarter and you get this. 458,000 x .7 = 320,600 who will do on line bill pay. 320,600 x .75 = 240,450 are the number of future CheckFree subscribers out of that batch of new on line banking group. Then again these are number from CheckFree supported banks so it's probably 240,450 to 320,600 future CheckFree customers. I'm sure somebody has better numbers...If you got them let me know...but this is the best I can work out with what I've pieced together from recent press.