Users Step Up Emergency Plans to Counter Y2K Bug [G*/L* references]
totaltele.com
By David Molony at CommunicationsWeek
International
06 April 1999
International telecoms users are stepping up coordination of
their Year 2000 programs in an eleventh-hour bid to counter
potential system failure in high-risk countries.
As information about operators' plans becomes clearer,
countries such as Brazil, China, India and Russia are emerging
as serious risks for companies with
communications-dependent businesses.
At a meeting of The European VPN Users Association
(EVUA) last month, members were asked to vote on which
countries posed the most risk to their international systems
(see map).
Major user groups are exploring the possibility of buying bulk
satellite back-up capacity, although doubts remain about
security and the practicalities of obtaining suitable licenses to
implement the plan in some target markets.
"There's no effective way to avoid Y2K," said Stephane
Chenard, senior consultant at Euroconsult SA, Paris. "A
VSAT [satellite terminal] on the roof will provide a temporary
back-up. But [it is not] easy to reconfigure whole [satellite]
systems. Major users can't be sure circuit capacity [will be]
reallocated to hot spots."
The EVUA, the International Telecommunications User Group
(INTUG), and affiliated national user associations are already
leading information-gathering on Year 2000 telecoms issues
for the International Telecommunication Union in Geneva.
In addition to major concerns over Brazil, China, India, and
Russia the EVUA members still have doubts over eastern
European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and
Romania. In Africa, Egypt and Nigeria were cited and South
American hotspots include Peru.
Users may appear to have left contingency planning late. But
until the end of last year little hard information was available
about the progress of national operators' Year 2000 programs.
Phil Barton, EVUA chairman and manager of telecoms strategy
at Zeneca Pharmaceuticals Ltd., of Macclesfield, England, said
several countries have moved from users' high-risk lists to the
medium-risk list in the past six months as more detailed
information has become available.
Barton said that improved data had enabled him to eliminate all
but Greece from the high-risk category among European
countries important to his company. And in the Americas only
Guatemala, Colombia and Ecuador remain on the high-risk list.
"Things have moved on," said David Moore, Europe, Middle
East and Africa (EMEA) systems manager at Citibank NA, of
London, who has been tracking the Year 2000 programs of 57
carriers in his region. "We are getting into face-to-face
interviews and getting answers direct from the [operator]
managers." He has doubts about operator Year 2000 strategies
in Norway, Poland and Slovakia in Europe, as well as
Cameroon and Congo in Africa.
However, users still don't have comprehensive data, even
about networks in the developed world. Barton said he still
had concerns about France, Germany, Italy and Spain, simply
because of incomplete information. And he said only 63% of
the 91 operators in the Americas had completed replies to
questionnaires.
Users and operators in Europe and the United States remain
suspicious of the state of readiness of national networks in
the Asia-Pacific region, but operators there say the talk of risk
in Asia is exaggerated.
Australian operator Telstra Corp. began coordinating a
regional Year 2000 program two years ago, according to
Telstra's Year 2000 program director Negba Weiss-Dolev, who
recently chaired a three-day workshop in Queensland,
attended by 95 companies.
Weiss-Dolev said that although operators in Japan have not
publicized their Year 2000 remediation plans, they are,
nevertheless, "good--quite comprehensive."
"We had representation in Queensland from KDD and NTT,"
said Weiss-Dolev. "Both of them had good stories to tell."
Telstra and the main Japanese operators are discussing joint
testing of both their international and domestic networks.
Elsewhere, Telstra has just completed international testing
with Singapore Telecom, and the two companies have agreed
to jointly test domestic PSTN and leased lines.
But clouds undoubtedly remain over some of Asia's biggest
telecoms markets. "I haven't come across too many people
who could give me a picture of the Chinese situation," said
Weiss-Dolev.
Meanwhile, wary users are readying contingency plans. Large
companies are already negotiating with satellite operators
such as Loral Orion Inc., Inmarsat, Iridium and GlobalStar to
provide additional bandwidth for data connections across
VSAT networks, or voice connectivity through laptop-PC
based satellite phones or GMPCS (global mobile personal
communications by satellite) handsets.
And there are calls for regulators to smooth the way for
satellite operators to access spectrum and license rights in
non-liberalized countries. And some users believe the ITU
should get involved in this process. "It is becoming clear there
needs to be a conversation at international level...to relax
satellite controls," said Citibank's Moore. "Probably this
needs to be at the ITU level."
Companies from the banking and pharmaceutical sectors are
leading negotiations with satellite operators. They include
Chase Manhattan Corp., Citibank, the Society for Worldwide
Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Glaxo
Wellcome plc, Unilever plc and Zeneca.
"We have plans to protect high-value business and it will
include satellite," said Moore. "We are talking to two or three
operators. [But] we are still trying to clarify whether satphones
will be permitted in these countries."
Peter Bacon, director of regional marketing and business
development at Globalstar, based in Farnham, England, said
Globalstar is negotiating with Vodafone Group plc, of
Newbury, England, to supply multiple phone links for Glaxo
Wellcome. But Globalstar is not due to launch services in the
United States in September, with rollout into Europe following
later.
User associations are also considering proposals for joint
buying arrangements. In Europe, the EVUA and INTUG are
discussing possible cooperation with Loral Orion to negotiate
satellite licensing and access arrangements with high-risk
countries. "We can provide a pool of bandwidth," said
Graham Lomas, vice president, market development in the
London office of Loral Orion Inc. "We are talking to EVUA
and corporates direct. We will guarantee to have bandwidth
available for them if they need it."
And in the United States, the Securities Industry Association
in New York is inviting a number of satellite operators to a
meeting next month to present proposals for combined
procurement.
But some major users think the initiative is misguided. "I don't
think it's a practical proposal," said Roeland van der Meiren,
telecoms manager at Monsanto Europe NV, of Brussels, who
added that it would not be realistic to expect satellite operators
to lay on additional capacity for business users except in
"isolated cases."
Many countries restrict licensing and access to satellite
systems, and users doubt the satellite operators can guarantee
access. There are also doubts that satellite operators can offer
secure alternatives.
"For the time being [we] are a little hesitant to use the new
operators [such as Iridium or Globalstar]," said Reidar Breivik,
IS manager at Statoil AS, Oslo. "We have no experience of the
reliability and availability of their services. Inmarsat is a
proven operator, but may...lack capacity."
Major users have yet to place contracts for new satellite
connections. Citibank's Moore said he would be making a
decision by the end of June. Statoil has not so far ordered any
additional capacity.
© EMAP Media 1999
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