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Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (328)	4/9/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Respond to of 477

MOODY'S BANKRUPT BOND INDEX FELL 3.1% IN MARCH TO 1,215 4/9/99 11:15 Moody's Bankrupt Bond Index Fell 3.1% In March To 1,215 NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Moody's Investors Service said its Bankrupt Bond Index fell 3.1% in March to end the month at 1,215, "as losers beat winners 2 to 1." After being vulnerable during most of 1998, "bankrupt bonds stayed on their feet November 1998 through January 1999, registering positive but weak gains," Moody's said. "These gains reversed a series of losses that had left MBBI down by as much as 31.8%," the rating agency added. Moody's also said that, "Following February's 1.3% decline, MBBI is down 2% through March 1999. Strong performers in March were Wireless One's senior discount notes due August 2006, up 25%; GB Property Funding Corp.'s 10 7/8% guaranteed first mortgage notes due January 2004, up 17.7%; and Heartland Wireless Communications' senior notes (14% and 13%), both rising 16.7%. Southern Pacific Funding Corporation, Ionica PLC and MIDCOM Communications also performed well." The rating agency added that, "March losses were widespread, and for some issues severe. Geotek Communications' senior discount notes due July 2005 plummeted 64.1%; AmeriTruck Distribution Corp.'s 12 1/4% senior subordinated notes due January 2005 fell 43.8%; and GITIC's 8 3/4% bonds tumbled 35.6%. Levitz Furniture, Acme Metals, and SmarTalk TeleServices and Telegroup also fell sharply." Moody's said Bradlees Inc. exited MBBI at the end of February, adding that, "During its 44 months in MBBI, Bradlees' 9 1/4% senior subordinated notes due March 2003 showed a -93.7% total (unannualized) return, and its 11% senior subordinated notes due August 2002 a -93.8% total (unannualized) return." The rating agency said, "Unsecured creditors will receive cash and stock worth about 19 cents on the dollar, according to Bradlees' estimate." Seven issuers entered MBBI in March, contributing 9 issues totaling over $1.1 billion, Moody's said, adding that, "The total face value of bankrupt debt included in MBBI has risen an enormous 33.7% through the first three months of 1999." The new entrants are Geneva Steel Co., Golden Books Publishing Co. Inc., Royal Oak Mines Inc., WorldCorp Inc., Telegroup Inc., USN Communications and Wireless One Inc. Moodys's also said that, "Growth in the number of issuers and issues has kept pace, rising 31.0% and 27.6% respectively." Moody's Bankrupt Bond Index (MBBI) is a monthly price index measuring the return of a broad cross-section of long-term public-debt issues of corporations that have filed for bankruptcy court protection. Not included in the index are the bonds of defaulted or distressed companies that have not yet filed for bankruptcy. MBBI includes issues both Moody's-rated and non-rated debt from U.S. and non-U.S. obligors, denominated in U.S. dollars. "Telecommunications companies are now the largest specific industry group in MBBI, comprising 20% of MBBI on an issuer-weighted basis and 23% as a percentage of total face value in the index," Moody's said.