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To: SteveG who wrote (9022)	4/9/1999 2:46:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 10227

from BTAB's prolific Hines and Fifer: PCS Reauction Update: Day 12 HIGHLIGHTS: -- Stage 3 (the final stage) of the re-auction of PCS frequencies continues after day 12 (8-Apr). After 42 rounds of bidding (the pace of the auction has increased to 6 rounds/day), the auction has yielded net bids of $410 million and appears to be on the brink of conclusion. As the auction winds down, these preliminary results have taken on greater significance and winning footprints are beginning to take shape (please see our note dated 22-Mar for identification of the top 10 qualifying participants). -- TOP FIVE BIDDERS BY NET BID (we note that an entity's bid amount can fluctuate (wildly) from round to round--as opposed to necessarily rising each round--if it loses a high bid position) Bidder Markets Bid ($Mil) Cook Inlet/VoiceStream PCS 28 192.2 OPCS Three 27 43.3 Viper Wireless 6 32.3 ABC Wireless 64 30.1 Leap Wireless 30 19.4 Source: Federal Communications Commission. -- TOP FIVE MARKETS BY NET BID Market Bidder Bid ($Mil) Bid/POP Chicago (30MHz) Cook Inlet/VoiceStream 117.9 $14.41 Dallas (30MHz) Cook Inlet/VoiceStream 62.4 $14.41 New Orleans (15 MHz) Viper Wireless 18.0 $13.18 St. Louis (30 MHz) OPCS Three 14.6 $5.33 Detroit (30 MHz) OPCS Three 13.2 $2.80 Source: Federal Communications Commission. -- RECENT BIDDING ACTIVITY BY ROUND New Net % Eligible Round High Bids Bids Chg. Bidders 37 16 $406M 0% 57 38 12 $407M 0% 57 39 11 $408M 0% 57 40 5 $408M 0% 57 41 11 $409M 0% 57 42 11 $410M 0% 57 Source: Federal Communications Commission. -- NET-NET: Oh, the agony! With the auction now at a virtual crawl and the FCC wringing every last nickel out of the auction participants, we can smell the end is near. New high bids have dropped to below 10 in the latest round, 15% of bidders have lost their eligibility, net high bids have stalled at just over $400 million, and bidding units in new high bids as a percentage of total bidding units (the FCC's main determinant of when to close a stage) is at an auction-low. Most of the new bidding continues to be on smaller licenses, and in fact, we are comfortable projecting Western Wireless as the winner of both the Chicago and Dallas markets. This is an important strategic win for the GSM carriers, although New Orleans and Las Vegas (the other two strategic holes in the GSM footprint) appear likely to wind up in the TDMA footprint. The WEIGHTED average bid for all markets with an active bid currently stands at $3.80/POP, $12.51/POP in the top-10 markets (as measured by per-POP bids)... Stay tuned.