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Technology Stocks : ASDV- Aspect Development-THE NEXT MSFT! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Ritter who wrote (255)	4/8/1999 5:18:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 414

Dear John: I like what I see in ASDV, but agree with you that this is dead money. Here's my thinking: 1) I believe that by Monday (April 12th) you will see numerous lawsuits filed against ASDV. (Note: I don't think the lawsuits will be meritorious because ASDV's drafted a very frank SEC 10K--talking about the possibility of a delay in contracts--given the complicated nature of ASDV's systems). However, potential new investors will be scared off. (As an example, go to ABTX on Yahoo--see all those lawsuit notices? They last for weeks.) 2) The analysts have to be pissed. A number of them upgraded ASDV within the last month or two. ASDV embarrassed those analysts and probably adversely affected their year-end bonuses. At the very least, some of the major clients of the analysts lost a lot of money. 3) ASDV will spend a lot of money staffing-up to go after the mid-cap deals. That means higher expenses and lower gross margins. 4) ASDV will not commence the stock buy-back for a month or so ( at least they shouldn't). At this point, $25 million buys 3.3 million shares. I'd rather have ASDV start to buy after the selling drys-up, than waste money now in buying the stock of the clients of those analysts who are pissed-off and recklessly selling. The buy-back in a month will have a better effect on the stock price. 5) I don't know whether you've noticed, but other than the internets, Intel, Microsoft and Dell, most stocks are down since the beginning of the year. Actually, there has been an outright "bear" market for small caps for awhile now. Guess what? ASDV is now a small cap. On top of that, April and May are usually down months for the techs. I expect that scenario to kick-in after the current earnings period. 6) Most wait-and-see investors will wait for an announcement of the delayed contracts. What happens if those contracts are not realized? According to the Soundview report (posted April 5th) the three delayed contracts had to do with: (i) a reorganization, (ii) an acquisition, and (iii) a complicated transaction. Do the first two contracts get done anytime soon? I don't know. 7) The ASDV earnings announcement will come out on April 20th (I think). Will the company use it as an opportunity to "clean the books" and write-off whatever makes sense? Will this lead to a loss even greater than what is being anticipated (even including the one-time gain from its merger transaction)? 8) What about "margin calls"? I assume that notices went out on Tuesday. Usually, people have three days to make good on that margin call. If not, the collateral shares are sold. When a stock loses so much value as in this case, the shares are usually sold. ASDV shares will be under pressure for a day or two more. In sum, even if there is a "dead cat" bounce, frustrated investors will use it as an opportunity to get the Hell out! My Goodness!! I'm depressing myself! Good investing!

To: John Ritter who wrote (255)	4/9/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: SilverFox77	Respond to of 414

<<Looks like dead money until something happens, sure hope the something is a contract closing soon. I hate sitting and waiting like this with big '0' each day but then I don't expect much downside either from 7 1/2 so I can rest easy if not richer. >> John........you've held the stock for a few days after a major earnings disappointment. I for one do not expect a surge in share price until at least another 2 weeks. I think it's worth holding on to at this entry level. While you're waiting for action w/ASDV, play the field with other stocks. That's what I do every day and I make some quick cash and hold my position on stocks I think are gonna fly. Good Luck and Happy Investing, Lorraine