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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arrow Hd. who wrote (4890)	4/9/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: Jules B. Garfunkel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

Hello Arrow, Although, I do not agree with your optimism for how well Wall Street will greet a relatively flat 1Q99 revenue number from IBM, or your guesstimate of IBM's selling price of $110 (post split) in July, I wish to thank you for your excellent posts. Your informative and well reasoned posts are most appreciated. As I have written before, I do not normally respond to those who post under pseudonyms, or do not provide profiles, however, because of your demonstrated knowledge of the subject matter, combined with your excellent track record on past calls, I am compelled to make an exception with your posts. I must tell you that because of your posts, for the first time in almost two years, I will not renew my Put options once my April contracts expire. I just wish all the posts on this thread, or on all the SI threads for that matter, were as informative as yours. Now, as to your invitation to post our best guestimates for IBM's 1Q99 earnings... I am using an overall revenue increase of 5.7 % for the year over year. However, because of an increasing reliance on selling OEM products, I believe, hardware gross profit margins will continue to decline and this will hurt earnings. As you know, I am never able to predict how many shares IBM will have bought back in the quarter in order to make their numbers, but I once again note that IBM will find it difficult to reduce their tax rate below last Q's 29.4%. Therefore, my best GUESS is that earnings will come in at $1.38. And although IBM's stock price will get help from IBM's stock split and forward looking statements, (as will probably be presented to Analysts on May 12), I am still looking for IBM to test $75, post split, sometime before July. As you have done, I remind the reader that this is only my best guess and that everyone should do their own homework. Best regards, Jules