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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (10333)	4/8/1999 8:11:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

L3: Well, I was late to update tonight as well. But my updated charts are up now... homestead.com Yes, the Market has been building to a decision point. Heck, I think we all knew that, right? Even all the big paycheck talking heads can't agree which direction it is going, still. So, why should we agree on this thread. Anyway, if we all agreed, I stop posting and move on...<g> It just would not be as much fun! Well, my stuff is being stretched right now, I am very close to becoming a bull myself...<g>...but, not quite yet!!! I went through all the stocks I track last night to see if I could agree with StockOperator, but not yet! Of course, I would feel much better if Windows on Wall Street's (not really so new now) data service had not filled in the holidays with data in all the indices and stocks I track. (They don't know what to do about it...I do...I am going to be changing software and data providers if those guys dont' get their act together soon. Those guy have problems out the gazoo and they just don't get it!!) I am going to pour over the charts again tonight, to see what I can discern. There are still divergences out there...I would also feel better about my med/lng-term oscillator giving a buy signal last night if it where not in historical highs for the indicator, not good. Go look at my charts, note all the resistance in the chart for the UTIL. And, my indicators are not implying an upside breakout for the RUT. And, the TRAN diverged today. And, the medium-term rising support line off the Oct 5th low is still unbroken for the TYX.X. PS: You can't see the long term unbroken support line on my charts for the TYX.X because I can't get the data on my WOW CD to marry up with the Data WOW provides....great service...huh!!!! Back to work... Regards, LG

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (10333)	4/9/1999 4:35:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

A couple of points. NASDAQ dropped and then popped of my support line, bullish. OEX, SPX made strong moves through the upper tines of the mid-term forks and could try to run to the upper tine of the long term forks now HOWEVER... The MACD Divergence indicator has signaled divergence starting with this important push through. This often signals a delayed response so I would start watching close near the end of next week. While the stochastics are approaching serious over bought levels, the CMO shows more upside still possible. I started checking OEX but was too far behind to figure out exact MAX PAIN. I saw Ben had his at 655 but those were the numbers I had last week and from eyeballing the contracts it appears much higher now. There is a large collection of open contracts (over 12K) around 660 from memory and I guestimate they will want it to close Friday around 670. While my short term forks on the SPX and OEX show an upside of 700 within expectations, note that prior attempts have fallen short and using the failed attempts of the past to draw a trend line, the turn should come around 688 tomorrow. Any significant retrace next week on the indexes will draw a tweezer top on the weekly index charts. This would be an extremely bearish signal. My long term prediction a few weeks ago was for this time period to be up since I felt that once earnings warnings were over there wouldn't be much to spook these markets. The warnings were minor this quarter which I did not expect and thought we would start this rally from lower levels. This makes me wonder if maybe my outlook for a rally over the next coming weeks may have been wrong and this has all turned out to be an inverted view like the Bradley Indicator <g>. Will this turn out to be a sell the news earnings season instead of a series of relief rallies. Europe cutting rates is a good sign for the markets however one more thing to note. My 5 day TRIN indicator is nearing a reversal point and should turn up in the next couple days. Rising TRIN will imply lower market action all at the same time as MACD Divergence being due and options expiry. Should be an interesting week as usual. My regular charts are updated at homestead.com however I did not update my candles due to being way late tonight and they were just basic white candles all the way across. Note how oil, natural gas are all at resistance points after forming bullish flags. If they break through, they could run another 10 points befoer meeting next resistance. RUT not confirming this rally and I found it interesting that the numbers someone posted earlier on the block moneyflow showed almost the same amount coming out of the smaller issues that were going into the larger caps. No new money being commited here at these levels but just rotating the same dollars from one market to another. Sector rotation with out new injection of funds despite AG pumping a few billion in every night. Must be why the bank indexes are running <ggg> PS - Don I see you keep referring to the DOT index but it is so new and I have so few quotes on it that it causes my indicators to act flaky so that is why I don't put the chart on the site. Once it settles out, I will add it. I do have the INX and IIX there though. If anyone sees an index I skipped, let me know. I am thinking of adding a few European markets but not sure which are most helpful since I really don't pay much attention to them. Only thing I have noticed with foreign markets, is about 2 weeks after Asia starts to drop, we finally cave in and follow suit. Lee, (getting less befuddled)