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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jing Qian who wrote (2535)	4/9/1999 3:49:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

Jing: eBay can't grow at 50 percent per quarter forever (although it is doing a good job trying). I believe that Amazon is having a marginal impact on eBay right now, maybe 2 percent to 4 percent. While I think this past quarter will show 50 percent plus revenue growth over the Christmas quarter, I expect that to slow down to about 40 percent for the second quarter. The summer quarter might show a 30 percent increase over the second quarter, with the Christmas quarter bumping back up to 40 percent. If you "buy" those numbers, we will see Q1 numbers of about $30M, Q2 numbers of $42M, Q3 numbers of $54M, and Q4 numbers of $75M, resulting in revenues of about $200M for this year. Maybe only $500M for next year and $1B for 2001. Right now, I think there is an imbalance between sellers and buyers, and that eBay needs to focus on getting more buyers in the door. The lack of a significant increase in auction counts over the past month is indicative that sellers have not been extremely pleased with their results. --Doug